TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Lukasz Oracz vs Adrian Burkacki 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115114112––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:28 and never touched: 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
44 points played in total.
Set by set
115114112––––
H2H Lukasz Oracz 8–3 Adrian Burkacki Adrian Burkacki has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:2863.7%Our read71.9%to break even at 1.39
short by 8.2pp71.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.39 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.39 (67%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Oracz
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1369 vs Burkacki 1291
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 60% vs Burkacki 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 60% vs Burkacki 40%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +1 · Burkacki +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Oracz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burkacki form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.39 / Burkacki 2.80
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Oracz)-8.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13217294
Oracz1.39
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 360 of 573
Up 2–0, closes it97% 202 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it81% 281 of 346
Burkacki2.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 24) · back after a break
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 52 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back16% 15 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz7wins
AwayBurkacki3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz100%7 of 7
AwayBurkacki100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz7Burkacki3n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S2Oracz6Burkacki4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S3Oracz6Burkacki4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S4Oracz3Burkacki3n = 6split evenly
S5Oracz2Burkacki1n = 3Oracz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczBurkackiO − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.034.0+5.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczBurkackiBasisWin rate · lifetime851 / 1548 vs 131 / 36355%36.1%851 / 1548 vs 131 / 363Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.035.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.39/Burkacki 2.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 23 · 08:20L. Oracz43121172113A. Burkacki45106111172
LJul 23 · 02:20L. Oracz268990A. Burkacki331111113
WJul 16 · 04:50L. Oracz341111123A. Burkacki2174100
LJul 15 · 21:10L. Oracz4589111162A. Burkacki50111198113
WJul 9 · 06:25L. Oracz341112113A. Burkacki2461080
WJul 9 · 02:45L. Oracz4616118113A. Burkacki391481161
WMay 7 · 04:50L. Oracz49111197113A. Burkacki3746111152
WMay 6 · 21:10L. Oracz331111113A. Burkacki176740
LApr 16 · 04:25L. Oracz344101191A. Burkacki3911125113
WApr 16 · 02:00L. Oracz46131111113A. Burkacki351113651
L. Oracz10
WSep 30 · 02:10O. Sokolowski2.10511911102L. Oracz1.67115115123LSep 30 · 01:25P. Gumulinski1.831111113L. Oracz1.835670WSep 29 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.8071080L. Oracz1.911112113WSep 29 · 22:35P. Slosarczyk3.50861181L. Oracz1.2811114113LSep 29 · 21:00J. Nowak2.5010111110113L. Oracz1.5012761282WSep 29 · 20:05M. Koczyba1.738111041L. Oracz2.0011912113LSep 29 · 19:20P. Gumulinski1.7311139113L. Oracz2.007111161WSep 29 · 17:20O. Sokolowski2.2591011101L. Oracz1.5711128123LSep 29 · 16:35J. Nowak2.38116114113L. Oracz1.5351161162WSep 29 · 15:00P. Slosarczyk3.002470L. Oracz1.361111113
A. Burkacki10
WSep 24 · 08:20A. Burkacki2.051091211113O. Sokolowski1.65121110832LSep 24 · 06:45M. Lebek1.4011611113A. Burkacki2.77911771LSep 24 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek1.88113611173A. Burkacki1.82411118152WSep 24 · 05:10A. Burkacki1.80811117143J. Nowak1.85118911122WSep 24 · 04:00A. Burkacki2.1411411113R. Skotniczny1.64711881WSep 24 · 02:45A. Burkacki1.66711118113J. Nowak2.0511651152LSep 24 · 01:10A. Burkacki1.8261141372R. Wiza1.881161111113LSep 24 · 00:00A. Burkacki1.641110961K. Hetnar2.1451211113LSep 23 · 22:25A. Burkacki2.20159781M. Lebek1.57131111113LSep 23 · 21:10A. Burkacki1.9471570O. Sokolowski1.631117113
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