TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Koczyba vs Krzysztof Juszczyk 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119411117117––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:29 and never touched: 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
71 points played in total.
Set by set
119411117117––
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 46–29 Krzysztof Juszczyk Krzysztof Juszczyk has won 29 of their 75 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2957.2%Our read62.5%to break even at 1.60
short by 5.3pp62.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.60 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Koczyba
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
46-29 in 75
Koczyba
Correct
gap of 17 in 75, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1344 vs Juszczyk 1358
Juszczyk
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 60% vs Juszczyk 40%
Koczyba
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 40% vs Juszczyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba -1 · Juszczyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Koczyba) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.60 / Juszczyk 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Koczyba)-5.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13229252
Koczyba1.60
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 304 of 480
Up 2–0, closes it94% 157 of 168
Up 1–0, closes it79% 214 of 270
Juszczyk2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 93 of 220
Down 0–1, comes back28% 32 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba5wins
AwayJuszczyk5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba75%3 of 4
AwayJuszczyk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba4Juszczyk6n = 10Juszczyk took 6 of 10
S2Koczyba4Juszczyk6n = 10Juszczyk took 6 of 10
S3Koczyba7Juszczyk3n = 10Koczyba took 7 of 10
S4Koczyba2Juszczyk5n = 7Juszczyk took 5 of 7
S5Koczyba3Juszczyk1n = 4Koczyba took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaJuszczykK − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.036.6+1.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaJuszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime851 / 1317 vs 655 / 121064.6%54.1%851 / 1317 vs 655 / 1210Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.60/Juszczyk 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.2%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Koczyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 17:35M. Koczyba4212121171K. Juszczyk4014141113
WSep 24 · 17:35M. Koczyba45841111113K. Juszczyk3911116292
LSep 23 · 20:00M. Koczyba30481171K. Juszczyk4211119113
WAug 26 · 17:35M. Koczyba50111198113K. Juszczyk3875111142
WAug 23 · 04:50M. Koczyba45571111113K. Juszczyk3711119332
LAug 20 · 17:35M. Koczyba2410950K. Juszczyk341211113
LAug 19 · 17:35M. Koczyba4051211932K. Juszczyk481110511113
LAug 12 · 17:35M. Koczyba381112781K. Juszczyk4591411113
WAug 9 · 05:35M. Koczyba331111113K. Juszczyk219570
WAug 5 · 17:35M. Koczyba331111113K. Juszczyk229760
M. Koczyba10
LOct 1 · 16:25K. Adamus1.73111188113M. Koczyba2.0034111162WOct 1 · 15:35M. Koczyba2.009121111113M. Tkocz1.7111143362WSep 30 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.68911119113S. Krupa2.0511751132WSep 30 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.68118811113A. Ruszkiewicz2.0881111572LSep 30 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.9112121171K. Juszczyk1.7814141113WSep 30 · 16:25P. Kaczynski2.4091111882M. Koczyba1.50119411113LSep 30 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.65111111852W. Pytlas2.10813811113LSep 30 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.445111181P. Slosarczyk2.6311138113LSep 30 · 00:35M. Koczyba1.61551191O. Sokolowski2.2011117113LSep 29 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.8071080L. Oracz1.911112113
K. Juszczyk10
WOct 1 · 16:50G. Jurowicz1.958511111K. Juszczyk1.7511118133LOct 1 · 15:10K. Adamus1.711111133K. Juszczyk2.0096110LSep 30 · 20:20A. Ruszkiewicz2.5011118113K. Juszczyk1.47871181LSep 30 · 19:35W. Pytlas1.86117116113K. Juszczyk1.8081151132WSep 30 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.9112121171K. Juszczyk1.7814141113LSep 30 · 16:50S. Krupa1.771111123K. Juszczyk1.9348100LSep 30 · 15:10P. Kaczynski1.80111011113K. Juszczyk1.85512881WSep 27 · 08:45K. Juszczyk1.6591112113O. Sokolowski2.101161081LSep 27 · 07:10K. Juszczyk1.52149111142R. Idaczyk2.30161185113WSep 27 · 06:00K. Juszczyk1.8511911113W. Pytlas1.80711491
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