TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Koczyba vs Marek Tkocz 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111214113113116
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:21 and never touched: 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
9111214113113116
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 49–27 Marek Tkocz Marek Tkocz has won 27 of their 76 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2155.7%Our read58.5%to break even at 1.71
short by 2.8pp58.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.71 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (54%)
Tkocz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
49-27 in 76
Koczyba
Correct
gap of 22 in 76, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1340 vs Tkocz 1418
Tkocz
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 60% vs Tkocz 80%
Tkocz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 40% vs Tkocz 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba +2 · Tkocz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Tkocz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 2.00 / Tkocz 1.71
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Tkocz)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13221130
Koczyba2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 21 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back19% 8 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Tkocz1.71
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 288 of 424
Up 2–0, closes it95% 162 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it86% 240 of 279
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba5wins
AwayTkocz5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba100%4 of 4
AwayTkocz83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba4Tkocz6n = 10Tkocz took 6 of 10
S2Koczyba4Tkocz6n = 10Tkocz took 6 of 10
S3Koczyba6Tkocz4n = 10Koczyba took 6 of 10
S4Koczyba4Tkocz5n = 9Tkocz took 5 of 9
S5Koczyba2Tkocz1n = 3Koczyba took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaTkoczK − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.337.7−2.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime852 / 1317 vs 779 / 117664.7%66.2%852 / 1317 vs 779 / 1176Avg sets wonper match2.32.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczKoczyba 2.00/Tkocz 1.71
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.7%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Koczyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 18:45M. Koczyba271011421M. Tkocz3812411113
WSep 17 · 23:35M. Koczyba3711411113M. Tkocz35711981
WSep 17 · 16:50M. Koczyba43511115113M. Tkocz4111651182
WSep 10 · 17:35M. Koczyba4111811113M. Tkocz32911661
WAug 20 · 15:35M. Koczyba521110118123M. Tkocz42312611102
LJun 30 · 16:00M. Koczyba26311571M. Tkocz3811511113
LJun 25 · 17:35M. Koczyba237970M. Tkocz331111113
WJun 23 · 16:50M. Koczyba3912511113M. Tkocz261011231
LJun 18 · 18:45M. Koczyba263211101M. Tkocz4111117123
LJun 16 · 15:35M. Koczyba3941151182M. Tkocz51119119113
M. Koczyba10
WSep 30 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.68911119113S. Krupa2.0511751132WSep 30 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.68118811113A. Ruszkiewicz2.0881111572LSep 30 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.9112121171K. Juszczyk1.7814141113WSep 30 · 16:25P. Kaczynski2.4091111882M. Koczyba1.50119411113LSep 30 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.65111111852W. Pytlas2.10813811113LSep 30 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.445111181P. Slosarczyk2.6311138113LSep 30 · 00:35M. Koczyba1.61551191O. Sokolowski2.2011117113LSep 29 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.8071080L. Oracz1.911112113WSep 29 · 22:10J. Nowak2.381489111M. Koczyba1.53121111133LSep 29 · 21:20M. Koczyba2.00116741P. Gumulinski1.7391111113
M. Tkocz10
LSep 30 · 02:20M. Lebek1.901111113M. Tkocz1.809890WSep 30 · 01:35O. Sokolowski2.60411612112M. Tkocz1.421181110133WSep 29 · 23:35M. Adamus2.606860M. Tkocz1.411111113WSep 29 · 22:50P. Kurek2.40631171M. Tkocz1.5011119113WSep 29 · 21:10P. Adamus2.751011571M. Tkocz1.4012411113LSep 29 · 20:20J. Kaczmarek1.51111158113M. Tkocz2.4187111172LSep 29 · 19:35O. Sokolowski1.4513111110113M. Tkocz2.5815661292LSep 29 · 17:35M. Adamus1.71111145113M. Tkocz2.0263111162WSep 29 · 16:50M. Sikon1.86111155102M. Tkocz1.84581111123LSep 29 · 15:10P. Kurek2.00111177113M. Tkocz1.7099111182
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