TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Nowak vs Krzysztof Juszczyk 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121012117116116
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:49 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Juszczyk to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Nowak above · Krzysztof Juszczyk below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 96 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Krzysztof Juszczyk at 60.1%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nowak 26–47 Krzysztof Juszczyk Jakub Nowak has won 26 of their 73 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:4960.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Juszczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-47 in 73
Juszczyk
Wrong
gap of 21 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1267 vs Juszczyk 1351
Juszczyk
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 20% vs Juszczyk 40%
Juszczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 30% vs Juszczyk 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak -1 · Juszczyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Juszczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Juszczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 2.25 / Juszczyk 1.571
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Juszczyk)-3.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13229715
Nowak2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 244 of 668
Down 0–1, comes back21% 84 of 400
Down 0–2, comes back8% 20 of 237
Juszczyk1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 199 of 312
Up 2–0, closes it96% 116 of 121
Up 1–0, closes it80% 159 of 198
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak6wins
AwayJuszczyk4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNowak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowak80%4 of 5
AwayJuszczyk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak5Juszczyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Nowak5Juszczyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Nowak6Juszczyk4n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S4Nowak4Juszczyk2n = 6Nowak took 4 of 6
S5Nowak2Juszczyk1n = 3Nowak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakJuszczykN − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.638.4+0.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakJuszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime666 / 1756 vs 656 / 121337.9%54.1%666 / 1756 vs 656 / 1213Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JuszczykNowak 2.25/Juszczyk 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Juszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 01:30J. Nowak2567120K. Juszczyk361111143
WAug 29 · 19:30J. Nowak43111011113K. Juszczyk38912891
LAug 29 · 01:30J. Nowak37911891K. Juszczyk4211911113
WAug 28 · 19:30J. Nowak44281211113K. Juszczyk47111110962
WAug 8 · 04:00J. Nowak451123113K. Juszczyk3782180
LAug 5 · 16:50J. Nowak36911881K. Juszczyk3911611113
LAug 2 · 16:40J. Nowak4211971142K. Juszczyk51911119113
WAug 2 · 10:40J. Nowak331111113K. Juszczyk227960
WJul 1 · 17:35J. Nowak341211113K. Juszczyk2310940
WJun 30 · 15:50J. Nowak47941211113K. Juszczyk49111110982
J. Nowak10
LOct 1 · 17:05W. Ptak1.581111123J. Nowak2.2573100WOct 1 · 15:55J. Nowak1.851111113J. Kaczmarek1.858990LOct 1 · 14:45R. Niemiec1.35111113113J. Nowak2.95791551LOct 1 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.25131111113J. Nowak3.501113351LOct 1 · 11:55W. Glanowski1.8519117123J. Nowak1.8517511101LOct 1 · 11:05R. Niemiec1.321111143J. Nowak3.0059120LOct 1 · 09:55J. Nowak1.8051481192J. Kaczmarek1.851112116113WOct 1 · 08:45W. Ptak1.758111011102J. Nowak1.95118128123LOct 1 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.261111113J. Nowak3.503480WOct 1 · 05:55W. Glanowski2.0010890J. Nowak1.701211113
K. Juszczyk10
LOct 2 · 16:35K. Juszczyk1.836960M. Baron1.831111113WOct 1 · 20:20W. Pytlas1.8377110K. Juszczyk1.831111133LOct 1 · 19:35M. Tkocz1.7011118113K. Juszczyk2.05941151LOct 1 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.6011411113K. Juszczyk2.10911771WOct 1 · 16:50G. Jurowicz1.958511111K. Juszczyk1.7511118133LOct 1 · 15:10K. Adamus1.711111133K. Juszczyk2.0096110LSep 30 · 20:20A. Ruszkiewicz2.5011118113K. Juszczyk1.47871181LSep 30 · 19:35W. Pytlas1.86117116113K. Juszczyk1.8081151132WSep 30 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.9112121171K. Juszczyk1.7814141113LSep 30 · 16:50S. Krupa1.771111123K. Juszczyk1.9348100
Upcoming Matches
J. Nowak
Oct 2 · 16:55J. Nowak2.38L. Oracz1.53—Oct 2 · 17:45J. Nowak1.36K. Kowalski3.00—Oct 2 · 18:30J. Nowak1.83O. Vincenec1.83—Oct 2 · 20:05J. Nowak2.00M. Baron1.73—Oct 2 · 21:45J. Nowak2.00G. Sawicki1.73—Oct 2 · 22:55J. Nowak2.38L. Oracz1.53—Oct 2 · 23:45J. Nowak2.50K. Juszczyk1.50—Oct 3 · 00:35J. Nowak1.91O. Vincenec1.80—Oct 3 · 02:10J. Nowak2.00M. Baron1.73—
K. Juszczyk
Oct 2 · 18:10K. Juszczyk1.73L. Oracz2.00—Oct 2 · 18:55K. Juszczyk1.22K. Kowalski4.00—Oct 2 · 19:40K. Juszczyk1.57O. Vincenec2.25—Oct 2 · 21:00K. Juszczyk1.80M. Baron1.91—Oct 2 · 22:10K. Juszczyk1.57O. Vincenec2.25—Oct 2 · 23:45K. Juszczyk1.50J. Nowak2.50—Oct 3 · 01:00K. Juszczyk1.44G. Sawicki2.63—Oct 3 · 02:35K. Juszczyk1.80L. Oracz1.91—
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.