Kamil Kowalski vs Mariusz Baron 1-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite Series

Played Oct 2Finished

Kamil Kowalski

Home

3.25

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Won last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

4111113117811––

Mariusz Baron

Away

1.33

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched: 73.7% is still 73.7%

Graded at full time

Mariusz Baron to win

73.7%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingKamil Kowalski above · Mariusz Baron below

Set 1 · 4-11

Set 2 · 11-13

Set 3 · 11-7

Set 4 · 8-11

Point 76 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Mariusz Baron at 73.7%

76 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 14:59

73.7%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333

short by 1.3pp

75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.33 (71%)

Baron

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Kowalski 1093 vs Baron 1331

Baron

Correct

both rated, 238 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kowalski 20% vs Baron 60%

Baron

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kowalski 20% vs Baron 60%

Baron

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Kowalski +1 · Baron -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Baron) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Baron form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKowalski 3.25 / Baron 1.333

Signal prob.26% / 74%

Edge (Baron)-1.3pp (anti-value)

TT Elite Series · #13228652

Kowalski3.25

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog18% won 29 of 162

Down 0–1, comes back6% 6 of 102

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 69

Baron1.33

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 01)

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite54% won 202 of 373

Up 2–0, closes it79% 94 of 119

Up 1–0, closes it67% 144 of 216

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricKowalskiBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime29 / 170 vs 872 / 182517.1%47.8%29 / 170 vs 872 / 1825Avg sets wonper match1.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match32.939.9per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Baron

Kowalski 3.25/Baron 1.33

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

73.7%

Baron · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Baron won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

K. Kowalski10