TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Gumulinski vs Mariusz Baron 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 20
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
101216181210118911
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:59 and never touched: 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Piotr Gumulinski @ 1.80 · Lost
How it is goingPiotr Gumulinski above · Mariusz Baron below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 16-18
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 117 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 54.3%
117 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gumulinski 101–119 Mariusz Baron Piotr Gumulinski has won 101 of their 220 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 09:5954.3%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.3pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Gumulinski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
101-119 in 220
Baron
Correct
gap of 18 in 220, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gumulinski 1571 vs Baron 1333
Gumulinski
Wrong
both rated, 239 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gumulinski 100% vs Baron 80%
Gumulinski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gumulinski 100% vs Baron 40%
Gumulinski
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gumulinski +20 · Baron +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Gumulinski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGumulinski 1.80 / Baron 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gumulinski)-1.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13222126
Gumulinski1.80
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 20
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 374 of 601
Up 2–0, closes it95% 170 of 179
Up 1–0, closes it78% 252 of 325
Baron1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 192 of 480
Down 0–1, comes back25% 67 of 265
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGumulinski5wins
AwayBaron5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGumulinski60%3 of 5
AwayBaron60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gumulinski5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S2Gumulinski3Baron7n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S3Gumulinski4Baron6n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S4Gumulinski6Baron3n = 9Gumulinski took 6 of 9
S5Gumulinski4Baron3n = 7Gumulinski took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGumulinskiBaronG − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match47.750.0−2.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGumulinskiBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime1033 / 1816 vs 873 / 183156.9%47.7%1033 / 1816 vs 873 / 1831Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiGumulinski 1.80/Baron 1.91
Miss
What we said
54.3%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Piotr Gumulinski @ 1.80 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 13:05P. Gumulinski51711139113M. Baron48116111192
WSep 15 · 06:55P. Gumulinski65139426133M. Baron6811111124112
WSep 5 · 01:25P. Gumulinski48111111153M. Baron344134131
LSep 4 · 19:20P. Gumulinski3911741162M. Baron45811114113
WAug 16 · 23:30P. Gumulinski631319312163M. Baron6715171110142
LAug 16 · 19:10P. Gumulinski4131191172M. Baron47118116113
LJul 23 · 11:30P. Gumulinski6413141016112M. Baron6611161214133
WJul 23 · 07:10P. Gumulinski49125129113M. Baron481011101162
LJul 22 · 09:25P. Gumulinski321041171M. Baron4312119113
LJul 22 · 03:25P. Gumulinski2581070M. Baron341112113
P. Gumulinski10
WOct 1 · 11:50O. Vincenec2.3813113482P. Gumulinski1.531181111113WOct 1 · 09:50P. Gumulinski1.28111113113P. Slosarczyk3.501371181WOct 1 · 08:10P. Gumulinski1.831112113W. Urban1.8361090WOct 1 · 06:30R. Idaczyk2.38111199112P. Gumulinski1.53771111133WOct 1 · 05:40P. Slosarczyk3.50631161P. Gumulinski1.2811118113WOct 1 · 04:55P. Gumulinski1.80711128113M. Baron1.91119101182WOct 1 · 03:50P. Gumulinski1.5011122113O. Vincenec2.507101151WSep 30 · 02:35J. Nowak2.0088111162P. Gumulinski1.73111165113WSep 30 · 01:25P. Gumulinski1.831111113L. Oracz1.835670WSep 30 · 00:10P. Slosarczyk3.50114111172P. Gumulinski1.28911139113
M. Baron10
LOct 1 · 12:15P. Slosarczyk1.80612113113M. Baron1.91111091182WOct 1 · 09:25R. Idaczyk2.008680M. Baron1.731111113WOct 1 · 08:35P. Slosarczyk2.0011119182M. Baron1.73891111113WOct 1 · 07:20M. Baron1.831112710113W. Urban1.83910111252WOct 1 · 06:05O. Vincenec1.677580M. Baron2.101111113LOct 1 · 04:55P. Gumulinski1.80711128113M. Baron1.91119101182LOct 1 · 03:25R. Idaczyk1.9111811123M. Baron1.808116101LSep 29 · 16:40P. Polok1.421111113M. Baron2.609680LSep 29 · 15:55W. Ptak1.731111113M. Baron1.989740LSep 29 · 13:55S. Juzek1.9011911113M. Baron1.80611561
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