TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Oliver Vincenec vs Piotr Gumulinski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1311118311411811
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:44 and never touched: 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOliver Vincenec above · Piotr Gumulinski below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 91 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 64.8%
91 points played in total.
H2H Oliver Vincenec 11–21 Piotr Gumulinski Oliver Vincenec has won 11 of their 32 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4464.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 0.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Gumulinski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-21 in 32
Gumulinski
Correct
gap of 10 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vincenec 1292 vs Gumulinski 1552
Gumulinski
Correct
both rated, 259 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vincenec 40% vs Gumulinski 80%
Gumulinski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vincenec 40% vs Gumulinski 90%
Gumulinski
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vincenec -1 · Gumulinski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Gumulinski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gumulinski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVincenec 2.375 / Gumulinski 1.533
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Gumulinski)-0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13222068
Vincenec2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog41% won 193 of 470
Down 0–1, comes back25% 70 of 281
Down 0–2, comes back8% 12 of 143
Gumulinski1.53
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 374 of 601
Up 2–0, closes it95% 170 of 179
Up 1–0, closes it78% 252 of 325
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVincenec5wins
AwayGumulinski5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVincenec60%3 of 5
AwayGumulinski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vincenec5Gumulinski5n = 10split evenly
S2Vincenec3Gumulinski7n = 10Gumulinski took 7 of 10
S3Vincenec8Gumulinski2n = 10Vincenec took 8 of 10
S4Vincenec3Gumulinski4n = 7Gumulinski took 4 of 7
S5Vincenec2Gumulinski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVincenecGumulinskiV − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.439.6−2.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVincenecGumulinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime701 / 1535 vs 1033 / 181645.7%56.9%701 / 1535 vs 1033 / 1816Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiVincenec 2.38/Gumulinski 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.8%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Gumulinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 03:50O. Vincenec337101151P. Gumulinski3611122113
WSep 9 · 09:00O. Vincenec4312911113P. Gumulinski391011991
WSep 9 · 04:30O. Vincenec461011211123P. Gumulinski42124115102
LSep 6 · 14:40O. Vincenec4212511862P. Gumulinski481011511113
LSep 6 · 06:05O. Vincenec33671191P. Gumulinski4111118113
WAug 17 · 02:20O. Vincenec331111113P. Gumulinski269890
LAug 16 · 18:20O. Vincenec4414411782P. Gumulinski531211811113
WAug 12 · 15:55O. Vincenec43461111113P. Gumulinski4711119882
WAug 12 · 09:55O. Vincenec361211133P. Gumulinski30109110
LAug 5 · 07:10O. Vincenec2131080P. Gumulinski341112113
O. Vincenec10
LOct 1 · 10:10O. Vincenec2.108590R. Idaczyk1.671111113WOct 1 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.10159114113W. Urban1.67131151192WOct 1 · 07:45R. Idaczyk1.80119891O. Vincenec1.9181111113LOct 1 · 06:55P. Slosarczyk2.201111113O. Vincenec1.617980LOct 1 · 06:05O. Vincenec1.677580M. Baron2.101111113WOct 1 · 04:30O. Vincenec1.83121112113W. Urban1.831491071LOct 1 · 03:50P. Gumulinski1.5011122113O. Vincenec2.507101151LSep 29 · 17:05O. Vincenec2.05116671W. Ptak1.6871111113LSep 29 · 15:30O. Vincenec3.00312100O. Jadach1.351114123WSep 29 · 14:20O. Vincenec1.81781511113P. Polok1.90111113992
P. Gumulinski10
LOct 1 · 11:00P. Gumulinski1.801016121192M. Baron1.911218108113WOct 1 · 09:50P. Gumulinski1.28111113113P. Slosarczyk3.501371181WOct 1 · 08:10P. Gumulinski1.831112113W. Urban1.8361090WOct 1 · 06:30R. Idaczyk2.38111199112P. Gumulinski1.53771111133WOct 1 · 05:40P. Slosarczyk3.50631161P. Gumulinski1.2811118113WOct 1 · 04:55P. Gumulinski1.80711128113M. Baron1.91119101182WOct 1 · 03:50P. Gumulinski1.5011122113O. Vincenec2.507101151WSep 30 · 02:35J. Nowak2.0088111162P. Gumulinski1.73111165113WSep 30 · 01:25P. Gumulinski1.831111113L. Oracz1.835670WSep 30 · 00:10P. Slosarczyk3.50114111172P. Gumulinski1.28911139113
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