TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Nowak vs Piotr Gumulinski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811811116115611
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 16
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:28 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Nowak above · Piotr Gumulinski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 88 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 57.7%
88 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nowak 30–59 Piotr Gumulinski Jakub Nowak has won 30 of their 89 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Gumulinski beat Nowak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:28What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Gumulinski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
30-59 in 89
Gumulinski
Correct
gap of 29 in 89, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1291 vs Gumulinski 1534
Gumulinski
Correct
both rated, 244 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 40% vs Gumulinski 100%
Gumulinski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 50% vs Gumulinski 100%
Gumulinski
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak -1 · Gumulinski +16
Gumulinski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Gumulinski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gumulinski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 2.00 / Gumulinski 1.73
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Gumulinski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13216073
Nowak2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 242 of 662
Down 0–1, comes back21% 84 of 395
Down 0–2, comes back9% 20 of 232
Gumulinski1.73
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 16
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 364 of 591
Up 2–0, closes it95% 163 of 172
Up 1–0, closes it77% 244 of 317
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak3wins
AwayGumulinski7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGumulinski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowak50%2 of 4
AwayGumulinski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak4Gumulinski6n = 10Gumulinski took 6 of 10
S2Nowak5Gumulinski5n = 10split evenly
S3Nowak1Gumulinski9n = 10Gumulinski took 9 of 10
S4Nowak3Gumulinski3n = 6split evenly
S5Nowak2Gumulinski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakGumulinskiN − GBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.140.9−4.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakGumulinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime677 / 1764 vs 1030 / 181738.4%56.7%677 / 1764 vs 1030 / 1817Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiNowak 2.00/Gumulinski 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Gumulinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 03:10J. Nowak46101161272P. Gumulinski491251110113
LSep 1 · 23:35J. Nowak2266100P. Gumulinski341111123
LJul 27 · 23:50J. Nowak30611581P. Gumulinski4211911113
WJul 27 · 17:55J. Nowak341211113P. Gumulinski2410680
LJul 26 · 23:55J. Nowak34119771P. Gumulinski4291111113
LJul 26 · 17:55J. Nowak279990P. Gumulinski331111113
WJul 1 · 00:35J. Nowak491111313113P. Gumulinski51138111182
LJun 30 · 18:30J. Nowak4811981462P. Gumulinski538111112113
WJun 19 · 07:35J. Nowak50111378113P. Gumulinski48911111162
LJun 18 · 21:10J. Nowak218670P. Gumulinski331111113
J. Nowak10
LSep 30 · 01:00J. Nowak1.8311119592P. Slosarczyk1.83961111113WSep 29 · 23:45J. Nowak1.911111113O. Sokolowski1.808790LSep 29 · 22:10J. Nowak2.381489111M. Koczyba1.53121111133WSep 29 · 21:00J. Nowak2.5010111110113L. Oracz1.5012761282LSep 29 · 19:40O. Sokolowski1.731114114113J. Nowak2.00712131192WSep 29 · 18:55P. Slosarczyk2.10111141092J. Nowak1.67431112113LSep 29 · 18:10J. Nowak2.2012101171P. Gumulinski1.6114128113WSep 29 · 16:35J. Nowak2.38116114113L. Oracz1.5351161162LSep 29 · 15:50M. Koczyba1.501111143J. Nowak2.5097120WSep 25 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek1.7194100J. Nowak2.001111123
P. Gumulinski10
WSep 30 · 01:25P. Gumulinski1.831111113L. Oracz1.835670WSep 30 · 00:10P. Slosarczyk3.50114111172P. Gumulinski1.28911139113WSep 29 · 22:55O. Sokolowski2.631061141P. Gumulinski1.4412116113WSep 29 · 21:20M. Koczyba2.00116741P. Gumulinski1.7391111113WSep 29 · 20:30P. Slosarczyk3.009280P. Gumulinski1.361111113WSep 29 · 19:20P. Gumulinski1.7311139113L. Oracz2.007111161WSep 29 · 18:10J. Nowak2.2012101171P. Gumulinski1.6114128113WSep 29 · 16:55M. Koczyba2.2041151562P. Gumulinski1.611151113113WSep 29 · 15:25O. Sokolowski2.50521151P. Gumulinski1.5011116113WSep 27 · 17:05P. Gumulinski1.83121111113K. Adamus1.871071381
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