TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Koczyba vs Piotr Gumulinski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111155111513611
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:51 and never touched: 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMariusz Koczyba above · Piotr Gumulinski below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 92 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 58.5%
92 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 30–32 Piotr Gumulinski Mariusz Koczyba has won 30 of their 62 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:51What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Gumulinski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
30-32 in 62
Gumulinski
Correct
gap of 2 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1392 vs Gumulinski 1478
Gumulinski
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 60% vs Gumulinski 100%
Gumulinski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 50% vs Gumulinski 80%
Gumulinski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba +1 · Gumulinski +8
Gumulinski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Gumulinski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gumulinski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 2.20 / Gumulinski 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Gumulinski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13215794
Koczyba2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 22 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Gumulinski1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 8
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 364 of 591
Up 2–0, closes it95% 163 of 172
Up 1–0, closes it77% 244 of 317
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba5wins
AwayGumulinski5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba60%3 of 5
AwayGumulinski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba5Gumulinski5n = 10split evenly
S2Koczyba4Gumulinski6n = 10Gumulinski took 6 of 10
S3Koczyba3Gumulinski7n = 10Gumulinski took 7 of 10
S4Koczyba5Gumulinski3n = 8Koczyba took 5 of 8
S5Koczyba3Gumulinski2n = 5Koczyba took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaGumulinskiK − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.041.5−2.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaGumulinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime853 / 1313 vs 1028 / 181665%56.6%853 / 1313 vs 1028 / 1816Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiKoczyba 2.20/Gumulinski 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Gumulinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 15 · 15:35M. Koczyba47771111113P. Gumulinski4411118682
LJun 28 · 06:45M. Koczyba4111114872P. Gumulinski49791111113
WMay 31 · 08:20M. Koczyba4211911113P. Gumulinski32511881
WMay 29 · 23:55M. Koczyba44411512123P. Gumulinski511191110102
LMay 14 · 22:25M. Koczyba203980P. Gumulinski331111113
LApr 16 · 23:35M. Koczyba3711610101P. Gumulinski4381112123
LApr 16 · 17:35M. Koczyba216690P. Gumulinski331111113
LMar 4 · 16:35M. Koczyba45511125122P. Gumulinski531171011143
WFeb 11 · 17:25M. Koczyba51119911113P. Gumulinski4481111592
WJan 11 · 04:35M. Koczyba4212118113P. Gumulinski331071151
M. Koczyba10
LSep 29 · 17:45P. Slosarczyk2.251111113M. Koczyba1.577370WSep 29 · 15:50M. Koczyba1.501111143J. Nowak2.5097120LSep 24 · 20:00M. Koczyba3.0010870P. Gasiorski1.261211113LSep 24 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.861011421M. Tkocz1.8012411113WSep 24 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.80841111113K. Juszczyk1.8511116292WSep 24 · 16:25G. Jurowicz1.95126120M. Koczyba1.701411143WSep 24 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.681211113M. Adamus2.0510850LSep 23 · 20:00K. Juszczyk2.0011119113M. Koczyba1.71481171LSep 23 · 19:10R. Wiza3.10119114113M. Koczyba1.3381161192LSep 23 · 18:25M. Koczyba1.754850K. Hetnar1.981111113
P. Gumulinski10
WSep 29 · 15:25O. Sokolowski2.50521151P. Gumulinski1.5011116113WSep 27 · 17:05P. Gumulinski1.83121111113K. Adamus1.871071381WSep 27 · 15:30P. Gumulinski1.4612118223R. Piechnik2.5510911201WSep 27 · 14:20P. Gumulinski1.93711411113M. Lach1.7711911782WSep 27 · 12:45P. Gumulinski2.4521214113P. Jedrzejak1.4711101291WSep 27 · 11:30P. Gumulinski1.52119118113R. Wojcik2.3021161142WSep 27 · 10:20P. Jedrzejak1.441251191P. Gumulinski2.60101113113WSep 27 · 09:30R. Piechnik2.401468111P. Gumulinski1.50121111133LSep 27 · 08:45P. Gumulinski1.8881171162K. Adamus1.82117115113LSep 27 · 07:10P. Gumulinski1.449770R. Wojcik2.501111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Koczyba
Sep 29 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.57O. Sokolowski2.25—Sep 29 · 20:05M. Koczyba1.73L. Oracz2.00—Sep 29 · 21:20M. Koczyba2.20P. Gumulinski1.61—Sep 29 · 22:10M. Koczyba1.57J. Nowak2.25—Sep 29 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.80L. Oracz1.91—Sep 30 · 00:35M. Koczyba1.57O. Sokolowski2.25—Sep 30 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.57P. Slosarczyk2.25—Sep 30 · 15:35M. Koczyba—W. Pytlas——Sep 30 · 16:25M. Koczyba—P. Kaczynski——Sep 30 · 17:35M. Koczyba—K. Juszczyk——
P. Gumulinski
Sep 29 · 19:20P. Gumulinski1.80L. Oracz1.91—Sep 29 · 20:30P. Gumulinski1.36P. Slosarczyk3.00—Sep 29 · 21:20P. Gumulinski1.61M. Koczyba2.20—Sep 29 · 22:55P. Gumulinski1.50O. Sokolowski2.50—Sep 30 · 00:10P. Gumulinski1.36P. Slosarczyk3.00—Sep 30 · 01:25P. Gumulinski1.73L. Oracz2.00—Sep 30 · 02:35P. Gumulinski1.73J. Nowak2.00—
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