TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Oliver Vincenec vs Rafal Idaczyk 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811511911––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:00 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeRafal Idaczyk to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Rafal Idaczyk @ 1.80 · Won
How it is goingOliver Vincenec above · Rafal Idaczyk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 55 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Rafal Idaczyk at 59.3%
55 points played in total.
H2H Oliver Vincenec 8–14 Rafal Idaczyk Oliver Vincenec has won 8 of their 22 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Vincenec beat Idaczyk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pick
Sealed 09:00Sent to Pro: Rafal Idaczyk @ 1.80 · Won
59.3%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 0.7pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Idaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-14 in 22
Idaczyk
Correct
gap of 6 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vincenec 1305 vs Idaczyk 1348
Idaczyk
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vincenec 60% vs Idaczyk 40%
Vincenec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vincenec 50% vs Idaczyk 30%
Vincenec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vincenec +2 · Idaczyk -3
Idaczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Idaczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Idaczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVincenec 2.10 / Idaczyk 1.666
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Idaczyk)-0.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13222252
Vincenec2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 193 of 470
Down 0–1, comes back25% 70 of 281
Down 0–2, comes back8% 12 of 143
Idaczyk1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 119 of 191
Up 2–0, closes it96% 69 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it81% 96 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVincenec6wins
AwayIdaczyk4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVincenec leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVincenec75%3 of 4
AwayIdaczyk50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vincenec4Idaczyk6n = 10Idaczyk took 6 of 10
S2Vincenec7Idaczyk3n = 10Vincenec took 7 of 10
S3Vincenec7Idaczyk3n = 10Vincenec took 7 of 10
S4Vincenec4Idaczyk4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVincenecIdaczykV − IBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.035.9+3.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVincenecIdaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime701 / 1534 vs 482 / 95845.7%50.3%701 / 1534 vs 482 / 958Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.535.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
IdaczykVincenec 2.10/Idaczyk 1.67
Hit
What we said
59.3%
Idaczyk · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Rafal Idaczyk @ 1.80 · Won
What happened
0–3
Idaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 07:45O. Vincenec4181111113R. Idaczyk37119891
LAug 29 · 13:55O. Vincenec387138101R. Idaczyk45111111123
WAug 29 · 04:10O. Vincenec3961111113R. Idaczyk31118661
WAug 11 · 08:00O. Vincenec361211133R. Idaczyk26105110
LJul 20 · 03:25O. Vincenec36971191R. Idaczyk3711114113
LJun 22 · 14:45O. Vincenec29491151R. Idaczyk4011117113
WJun 20 · 04:10O. Vincenec341211113R. Idaczyk2610970
LJun 6 · 11:30O. Vincenec4111114782R. Idaczyk51991111113
WJun 6 · 07:10O. Vincenec541291111113R. Idaczyk4114114482
WApr 11 · 13:10O. Vincenec4211119113R. Idaczyk25471131
O. Vincenec10
WOct 1 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.10159114113W. Urban1.67131151192WOct 1 · 07:45R. Idaczyk1.80119891O. Vincenec1.9181111113LOct 1 · 06:55P. Slosarczyk2.201111113O. Vincenec1.617980LOct 1 · 06:05O. Vincenec1.677580M. Baron2.101111113WOct 1 · 04:30O. Vincenec1.83121112113W. Urban1.831491071LOct 1 · 03:50P. Gumulinski1.5011122113O. Vincenec2.507101151LSep 29 · 17:05O. Vincenec2.05116671W. Ptak1.6871111113LSep 29 · 15:30O. Vincenec3.00312100O. Jadach1.351114123WSep 29 · 14:20O. Vincenec1.81781511113P. Polok1.90111113992WSep 29 · 12:45O. Vincenec1.9011116113S. Juzek1.80671181
R. Idaczyk10
LOct 1 · 09:25R. Idaczyk2.008680M. Baron1.731111113LOct 1 · 07:45R. Idaczyk1.80119891O. Vincenec1.9181111113LOct 1 · 06:30R. Idaczyk2.38111199112P. Gumulinski1.53771111133WOct 1 · 05:15R. Idaczyk1.8071115113W. Urban1.911171381WOct 1 · 04:10P. Slosarczyk2.1081161172R. Idaczyk1.67116118113WOct 1 · 03:25R. Idaczyk1.9111811123M. Baron1.808116101LSep 29 · 14:20K. Kowalski3.401111113R. Idaczyk1.308880LSep 29 · 13:30K. Schaniel1.73119119113R. Idaczyk2.0061191172LSep 29 · 11:25R. Gajda1.57111011143R. Idaczyk2.259128121LSep 29 · 10:35I. Szymanski4.331111113R. Idaczyk1.209580
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