TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kamil Kowalski vs Oliver Vincenec 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811711––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:09 and never touched: 76.7% is still 76.7%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
76.7%
76.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKamil Kowalski above · Oliver Vincenec below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 56 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Oliver Vincenec at 76.7%
56 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Kowalski 1–4 Oliver Vincenec Kamil Kowalski has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:0976.7%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 0.2pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Vincenec
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Vincenec
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowalski 1087 vs Vincenec 1306
Vincenec
Correct
both rated, 219 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowalski 20% vs Vincenec 40%
Vincenec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowalski 10% vs Vincenec 50%
Vincenec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowalski -1 · Vincenec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% · Strong (leans Vincenec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vincenec form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowalski 3.40 / Vincenec 1.30
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Vincenec)-0.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13233201
Kowalski3.40
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog18% won 29 of 162
Down 0–1, comes back6% 6 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 69
Vincenec1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 132 of 246
Up 2–0, closes it86% 59 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it73% 96 of 131
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKowalski1wins
AwayVincenec4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderVincenec leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowalski33.3%1 of 3
AwayVincenecn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowalski3Vincenec2n = 5Kowalski took 3 of 5
S2Kowalski2Vincenec3n = 5Vincenec took 3 of 5
S3Kowalski0Vincenec5n = 5Vincenec took 5 of 5
S4Kowalski3Vincenec1n = 4Kowalski took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKowalskiVincenecK − VBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match37.042.6−5.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalskiVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime29 / 171 vs 703 / 153917%45.7%29 / 171 vs 703 / 1539Avg sets wonper match1.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match32.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VincenecKowalski 3.40/Vincenec 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
Vincenec · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 3 · 14:20K. Kowalski4111841172O. Vincenec49711119113
LSep 3 · 06:30K. Kowalski27107100O. Vincenec351211123
LAug 11 · 14:20K. Kowalski48121061192O. Vincenec501012116113
WAug 6 · 11:25K. Kowalski3811124113O. Vincenec356101181
LAug 6 · 05:15K. Kowalski311012721O. Vincenec44121011113
K. Kowalski10
LOct 2 · 15:00K. Kowalski3.254111181M. Baron1.3311137113WSep 30 · 14:20K. Kowalski5.5011115113P. Brozek1.13471141LSep 30 · 12:40K. Adamus1.221411113K. Kowalski4.0012690LSep 30 · 11:50P. Przewlocki1.1716136113K. Kowalski4.5014111191LSep 30 · 11:00K. Kowalski6.501061181O. Jadach1.1012116113LSep 30 · 09:50K. Kowalski3.007450I. Szymanski1.361111113LSep 30 · 08:10K. Kowalski3.405101112142P. Brozek1.301112610163LSep 30 · 06:30K. Adamus1.221110811113K. Kowalski4.0081211522LSep 30 · 05:40I. Szymanski1.3611811113K. Kowalski3.00611481LSep 30 · 04:55K. Kowalski3.50138281O. Jadach1.28111111113
O. Vincenec10
WOct 2 · 15:25O. Vincenec1.8091111123L. Oracz1.911199101WOct 1 · 14:40O. Vincenec1.611111113M. Baron2.209990LOct 1 · 13:05O. Vincenec1.57912651P. Slosarczyk2.25111011113LOct 1 · 11:50O. Vincenec2.3813113482P. Gumulinski1.531181111113LOct 1 · 10:10O. Vincenec2.108590R. Idaczyk1.671111113WOct 1 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.10159114113W. Urban1.67131151192WOct 1 · 07:45R. Idaczyk1.80119891O. Vincenec1.9181111113LOct 1 · 06:55P. Slosarczyk2.201111113O. Vincenec1.617980LOct 1 · 06:05O. Vincenec1.677580M. Baron2.101111113WOct 1 · 04:30O. Vincenec1.83121112113W. Urban1.831491071
Upcoming Matches
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O. Vincenec
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