TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kamil Kowalski vs Jakub Nowak 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012311113911––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:33 and never touched: 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timeJakub Nowak to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKamil Kowalski above · Jakub Nowak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 70 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Jakub Nowak at 71.6%
70 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Kowalski 0–2 Jakub Nowak Kamil Kowalski has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:3371.6%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 1.8pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Nowak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kowalski 1079 vs Nowak 1268
Nowak
Correct
both rated, 189 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowalski 20% vs Nowak 40%
Nowak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowalski 10% vs Nowak 30%
Nowak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowalski -2 · Nowak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Nowak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowalski 3.00 / Nowak 1.363
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Nowak)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232963
Kowalski3.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog18% won 29 of 162
Down 0–1, comes back6% 6 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 69
Nowak1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 71 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it69% 47 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKowalski0wins
AwayNowak2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderNowak leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKowalskiNowakK − NBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match39.044.0−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalskiNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime29 / 172 vs 667 / 175716.9%38%29 / 172 vs 667 / 1757Avg sets wonper match1.21.7per matchAvg pointsper match32.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NowakKowalski 3.00/Nowak 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.6%
Nowak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJul 25 · 14:40K. Kowalski4311711862J. Nowak44211911113
LJul 25 · 06:05K. Kowalski35137871J. Nowak44111111113
K. Kowalski10
LOct 2 · 16:15K. Kowalski3.408870O. Vincenec1.301111113LOct 2 · 15:00K. Kowalski3.254111181M. Baron1.3311137113WSep 30 · 14:20K. Kowalski5.5011115113P. Brozek1.13471141LSep 30 · 12:40K. Adamus1.221411113K. Kowalski4.0012690LSep 30 · 11:50P. Przewlocki1.1716136113K. Kowalski4.5014111191LSep 30 · 11:00K. Kowalski6.501061181O. Jadach1.1012116113LSep 30 · 09:50K. Kowalski3.007450I. Szymanski1.361111113LSep 30 · 08:10K. Kowalski3.405101112142P. Brozek1.301112610163LSep 30 · 06:30K. Adamus1.221110811113K. Kowalski4.0081211522LSep 30 · 05:40I. Szymanski1.3611811113K. Kowalski3.00611481
J. Nowak10
LOct 2 · 16:55J. Nowak2.3845110L. Oracz1.531111133WOct 2 · 15:50J. Nowak2.2510101111113K. Juszczyk1.5712127662LOct 1 · 17:05W. Ptak1.581111123J. Nowak2.2573100WOct 1 · 15:55J. Nowak1.851111113J. Kaczmarek1.858990LOct 1 · 14:45R. Niemiec1.35111113113J. Nowak2.95791551LOct 1 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.25131111113J. Nowak3.501113351LOct 1 · 11:55W. Glanowski1.8519117123J. Nowak1.8517511101LOct 1 · 11:05R. Niemiec1.321111143J. Nowak3.0059120LOct 1 · 09:55J. Nowak1.8051481192J. Kaczmarek1.851112116113WOct 1 · 08:45W. Ptak1.758111011102J. Nowak1.95118128123
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