TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Oliver Vincenec vs Jakub Nowak 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1192224141614121311
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOliver Vincenec above · Jakub Nowak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 22-24
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 146 set 5, 13-11 · our read held Oliver Vincenec at 54.0%
146 points played in total.
H2H Oliver Vincenec 13–20 Jakub Nowak Oliver Vincenec has won 13 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2854.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Nowak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-20 in 33
Nowak
Wrong
gap of 7 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vincenec 1334 vs Nowak 1265
Vincenec
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vincenec 80% vs Nowak 60%
Vincenec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vincenec 60% vs Nowak 30%
Vincenec
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vincenec +4 · Nowak +1
Vincenec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vincenec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vincenec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVincenec 1.833 / Nowak 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vincenec)-0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13232333
Vincenec1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Nowak1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVincenec4wins
AwayNowak6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNowak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVincenec75%3 of 4
AwayNowak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vincenec4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S2Vincenec3Nowak7n = 10Nowak took 7 of 10
S3Vincenec4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S4Vincenec3Nowak6n = 9Nowak took 6 of 9
S5Vincenec3Nowak0n = 3Vincenec took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVincenecNowakV − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.843.8−4.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVincenecNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime706 / 1542 vs 668 / 175945.8%38%706 / 1542 vs 668 / 1759Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VincenecVincenec 1.83/Nowak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vincenec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 18:30O. Vincenec7411221414133J. Nowak729241612112
WSep 18 · 03:25O. Vincenec51119812113J. Nowak48711111092
LSep 14 · 03:55O. Vincenec33791161J. Nowak3611113113
LSep 13 · 21:55O. Vincenec367115131J. Nowak4111411153
LAug 8 · 04:50O. Vincenec28114581J. Nowak4291111113
LJul 30 · 09:25O. Vincenec34711791J. Nowak4211911113
WJul 30 · 03:25O. Vincenec3961111113J. Nowak33117871
LJul 29 · 06:25O. Vincenec33791161J. Nowak4111118113
WJul 7 · 06:00O. Vincenec47145116113J. Nowak50121191172
LJun 19 · 03:35O. Vincenec238960J. Nowak331111113
O. Vincenec10
WOct 2 · 17:20O. Vincenec2.201141313113M. Baron1.61811111562WOct 2 · 16:15K. Kowalski3.408870O. Vincenec1.301111113WOct 2 · 15:25O. Vincenec1.8091111123L. Oracz1.911199101WOct 1 · 14:40O. Vincenec1.611111113M. Baron2.209990LOct 1 · 13:05O. Vincenec1.57912651P. Slosarczyk2.25111011113LOct 1 · 11:50O. Vincenec2.3813113482P. Gumulinski1.531181111113LOct 1 · 10:10O. Vincenec2.108590R. Idaczyk1.671111113WOct 1 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.10159114113W. Urban1.67131151192WOct 1 · 07:45R. Idaczyk1.80119891O. Vincenec1.9181111113LOct 1 · 06:55P. Slosarczyk2.201111113O. Vincenec1.617980
J. Nowak10
WOct 2 · 17:45K. Kowalski3.001031191J. Nowak1.3612113113LOct 2 · 16:55J. Nowak2.3845110L. Oracz1.531111133WOct 2 · 15:50J. Nowak2.2510101111113K. Juszczyk1.5712127662LOct 1 · 17:05W. Ptak1.581111123J. Nowak2.2573100WOct 1 · 15:55J. Nowak1.851111113J. Kaczmarek1.858990LOct 1 · 14:45R. Niemiec1.35111113113J. Nowak2.95791551LOct 1 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.25131111113J. Nowak3.501113351LOct 1 · 11:55W. Glanowski1.8519117123J. Nowak1.8517511101LOct 1 · 11:05R. Niemiec1.321111143J. Nowak3.0059120LOct 1 · 09:55J. Nowak1.8051481192J. Kaczmarek1.851112116113
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