TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Nowak vs Grzegorz Sawicki 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111113117118117
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:44 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Sawicki to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Nowak above · Grzegorz Sawicki below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 94 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Grzegorz Sawicki at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nowak 24–25 Grzegorz Sawicki Jakub Nowak has won 24 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:4454.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sawicki
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
24-25 in 49
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1255 vs Sawicki 1322
Sawicki
Wrong
both rated, 67 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 40% vs Sawicki 80%
Sawicki
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 30% vs Sawicki 50%
Sawicki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak -2 · Sawicki -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sawicki) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sawicki form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 1.909 / Sawicki 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sawicki)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232513
Nowak1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 244 of 668
Down 0–1, comes back21% 84 of 400
Down 0–2, comes back8% 20 of 237
Sawicki1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 13 days ago (Sep 20) · back after a break
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 41 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it100% 24 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it87% 34 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak6wins
AwaySawicki4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderNowak leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowak80%4 of 5
AwaySawicki60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak5Sawicki5n = 10split evenly
S2Nowak6Sawicki4n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S3Nowak3Sawicki7n = 10Sawicki took 7 of 10
S4Nowak4Sawicki3n = 7Nowak took 4 of 7
S5Nowak4Sawicki2n = 6Nowak took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakSawickiN − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.841.5+0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakSawickiBasisWin rate · lifetime668 / 1760 vs 364 / 92238%39.5%668 / 1760 vs 364 / 922Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SawickiNowak 1.91/Sawicki 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sawicki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 01:10J. Nowak197570G. Sawicki331111113
WSep 19 · 17:30J. Nowak391111173G. Sawicki3399150
WSep 5 · 06:05J. Nowak4211119113G. Sawicki30691141
LAug 29 · 23:55J. Nowak4671191182G. Sawicki44114117113
WAug 29 · 17:55J. Nowak47711126113G. Sawicki49118101192
LJun 28 · 23:35J. Nowak2688100G. Sawicki341111123
WJun 28 · 17:35J. Nowak50117811133G. Sawicki46911114112
LJun 28 · 03:55J. Nowak45111111752G. Sawicki52981311113
WJun 27 · 21:55J. Nowak491211123113G. Sawicki52149101182
WMay 3 · 23:35J. Nowak551213811113G. Sawicki42101511152
J. Nowak10
LOct 2 · 20:05J. Nowak2.00910121192M. Baron1.731112108113LOct 2 · 18:30O. Vincenec1.8311221414133J. Nowak1.839241612112WOct 2 · 17:45K. Kowalski3.001031191J. Nowak1.3612113113LOct 2 · 16:55J. Nowak2.3845110L. Oracz1.531111133WOct 2 · 15:50J. Nowak2.2510101111113K. Juszczyk1.5712127662LOct 1 · 17:05W. Ptak1.581111123J. Nowak2.2573100WOct 1 · 15:55J. Nowak1.851111113J. Kaczmarek1.858990LOct 1 · 14:45R. Niemiec1.35111113113J. Nowak2.95791551LOct 1 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.25131111113J. Nowak3.501113351LOct 1 · 11:55W. Glanowski1.8519117123J. Nowak1.8517511101
G. Sawicki10
LSep 20 · 04:20R. Szymik1.441111113G. Sawicki2.607470WSep 20 · 03:30D. Dytko1.697880G. Sawicki2.061111113WSep 20 · 02:45G. Sawicki1.5711115113J. Michalski2.25951181WSep 20 · 01:10G. Sawicki1.851111113J. Nowak1.807570WSep 20 · 00:20D. Fira1.687811121G. Sawicki1.8711113143LSep 19 · 23:05G. Sawicki1.5010570J. Michalski2.401211113LSep 19 · 21:30G. Sawicki2.2511613872D. Dytko1.546111111113LSep 19 · 20:20G. Sawicki1.958970D. Fira1.741111113WSep 19 · 18:45G. Sawicki2.60119147113R. Szymik1.41911121172LSep 19 · 17:30G. Sawicki1.7599150J. Nowak1.981111173
Upcoming Matches
J. Nowak
G. Sawicki
Oct 3 · 00:10G. Sawicki2.50L. Oracz1.50—Oct 3 · 01:00G. Sawicki2.63K. Juszczyk1.44—Oct 3 · 01:45G. Sawicki2.00O. Vincenec1.73—Oct 3 · 03:25G. Sawicki1.73O. Sokolowski2.00—Oct 3 · 04:10G. Sawicki3.00W. Wojtaszczyk1.36—Oct 3 · 05:15G. Sawicki2.25J. Jesiek1.57—Oct 3 · 06:30G. Sawicki2.00L. Bernacki1.73—Oct 3 · 07:45G. Sawicki1.83S. Sojka1.83—Oct 3 · 18:20G. Sawicki—M. Durda——Oct 3 · 19:30G. Sawicki—J. Badura——
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