TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Oliver Vincenec vs Milosz Cesarz 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141311118––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:03 and never touched: 65.0% is still 65.0%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
65.0%
65.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
58 points played in total.
Set by set
1141311118––––
H2H Oliver Vincenec 8–3 Milosz Cesarz Milosz Cesarz has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:0365.0%Our read69.0%to break even at 1.45
short by 4.0pp69.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.45 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (63%)
Vincenec
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Vincenec
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vincenec 1347 vs Cesarz 1170
Vincenec
Correct
both rated, 177 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vincenec 40% vs Cesarz 60%
Cesarz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vincenec 40% vs Cesarz 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vincenec +1 · Cesarz -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Vincenec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cesarz form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVincenec 1.45 / Cesarz 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Vincenec)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13252836
Vincenec1.45
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 133 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it85% 58 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it73% 94 of 128
Cesarz2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog25% won 63 of 251
Down 0–1, comes back12% 21 of 172
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVincenec7wins
AwayCesarz3wins
Vincenec leads 7–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVincenec100%6 of 6
AwayCesarz75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vincenec6Cesarz4n = 10Vincenec took 6 of 10
S2Vincenec7Cesarz3n = 10Vincenec took 7 of 10
S3Vincenec8Cesarz2n = 10Vincenec took 8 of 10
S4Vincenec2Cesarz2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVincenecCesarzV − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.229.9+6.3per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVincenecCesarzBasisWin rate · lifetime714 / 1559 vs 147 / 53245.8%27.6%714 / 1559 vs 147 / 532Avg sets wonper match1.91.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.533.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VincenecVincenec 1.45/Cesarz 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65%
Vincenec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 05:10O. Vincenec351113113M. Cesarz2341180
WAug 18 · 06:00O. Vincenec331111113M. Cesarz225980
WJul 28 · 03:10O. Vincenec4181111113M. Cesarz30112981
WJul 22 · 07:10O. Vincenec5120911113M. Cesarz431811951
LJul 7 · 05:10O. Vincenec30910110M. Cesarz361112133
WMar 17 · 07:45O. Vincenec331111113M. Cesarz238780
LMar 10 · 08:35O. Vincenec32761181M. Cesarz3611113113
WMar 3 · 07:00O. Vincenec361114113M. Cesarz2881280
WFeb 10 · 08:35O. Vincenec331111113M. Cesarz152580
LFeb 5 · 21:45O. Vincenec381211961M. Cesarz4314711113
O. Vincenec10
WOct 6 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek2.00111112932O. Vincenec1.70771411113WOct 6 · 04:00O. Vincenec1.951111153A. Ruszkiewicz1.7536130LOct 5 · 14:40O. Vincenec2.502711121J. Pruszkowski1.5011117143LOct 5 · 13:05O. Vincenec2.1041131282P. Przewlocki1.671191110113LOct 5 · 11:50O. Vincenec2.101011271J. Badura1.6712911113WOct 5 · 10:10O. Vincenec2.25118113113S. Szostok1.5771151192LOct 5 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.75911781K. Slawinski1.4011711113LOct 5 · 07:45K. Slawinski1.40118117113O. Vincenec2.7581171172WOct 5 · 06:55P. Przewlocki1.7371151182O. Vincenec2.00115112113LOct 5 · 06:05O. Vincenec2.5012750J. Pruszkowski1.501411113
M. Cesarz10
LOct 6 · 06:25A. Ruszkiewicz1.411111113M. Cesarz2.608480LOct 6 · 03:35R. Skotniczny1.121111113M. Cesarz4.954450LOct 2 · 14:40M. Cesarz3.7555160W. Urban1.251111183WOct 2 · 13:05M. Cesarz3.4011117113P. Adamus1.30841141WOct 2 · 11:50M. Cesarz4.331611143R. Skotniczny1.20149120WOct 2 · 10:10M. Cesarz4.3311101310113O. Jadach1.20912111292LOct 2 · 09:00M. Cesarz3.006141261K. Schaniel1.36111214113LOct 2 · 07:45O. Jadach1.2281111113M. Cesarz4.00118551WOct 2 · 06:55P. Adamus1.2886100M. Cesarz3.501111123LOct 2 · 06:05M. Cesarz3.259118101W. Urban1.3311911123
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