TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Milosz Cesarz vs Pawel Adamus 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118114711114––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:04 and never touched: 76.7% is still 76.7%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
76.7%
76.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilosz Cesarz above · Pawel Adamus below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 67 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Pawel Adamus at 76.7%
67 points played in total.
H2H Milosz Cesarz 2–11 Pawel Adamus Milosz Cesarz has won 2 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Cesarz beat Adamus 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:0476.7%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 0.2pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-11 in 13
Adamus
Wrong
gap of 9 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cesarz 1173 vs Adamus 1358
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 185 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cesarz 60% vs Adamus 20%
Cesarz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cesarz 40% vs Adamus 10%
Cesarz
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cesarz +2 · Adamus -3
Adamus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% · Strong (leans Adamus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (20%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCesarz 3.40 / Adamus 1.30
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Adamus)-0.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13227505
Cesarz3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog24% won 59 of 250
Down 0–1, comes back12% 21 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 114
Adamus1.30
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 222 of 349
Up 2–0, closes it99% 109 of 110
Up 1–0, closes it80% 168 of 211
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCesarz2wins
AwayAdamus8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCesarzn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayAdamus87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cesarz2Adamus8n = 10Adamus took 8 of 10
S2Cesarz4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S3Cesarz5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S4Cesarz1Adamus5n = 6Adamus took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricCesarzAdamusC − ABasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match31.737.0−5.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCesarzAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 533 vs 401 / 73027.4%54.9%146 / 533 vs 401 / 730Avg sets wonper match1.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match33.340.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusCesarz 3.40/Adamus 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.7%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cesarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 06:55M. Cesarz341111123P. Adamus2486100
LSep 30 · 04:25M. Cesarz388101281P. Adamus44111210113
LSep 1 · 08:20M. Cesarz204970P. Adamus331111113
LAug 25 · 00:30M. Cesarz4681111882P. Adamus45117511113
LAug 24 · 22:20M. Cesarz33116791P. Adamus4071111113
LJul 7 · 07:35M. Cesarz131750P. Adamus331111113
LJun 24 · 01:25M. Cesarz365129101P. Adamus44111011123
WJun 23 · 19:20M. Cesarz4291111113P. Adamus30115681
LMay 12 · 07:35M. Cesarz228770P. Adamus331111113
LApr 22 · 05:10M. Cesarz331161151P. Adamus4413119113
M. Cesarz10
WOct 2 · 11:50M. Cesarz4.331611143R. Skotniczny1.20149120WOct 2 · 10:10M. Cesarz4.3311101310113O. Jadach1.20912111292LOct 2 · 09:00M. Cesarz3.006141261K. Schaniel1.36111214113LOct 2 · 07:45O. Jadach1.2281111113M. Cesarz4.00118551WOct 2 · 06:55P. Adamus1.2886100M. Cesarz3.501111123LOct 2 · 06:05M. Cesarz3.259118101W. Urban1.3311911123WOct 2 · 04:30M. Cesarz3.40101111113K. Schaniel1.30127791LOct 2 · 03:50R. Skotniczny1.22811413123M. Cesarz4.001181111102LSep 30 · 08:45M. Cesarz6.255740M. Guzik1.081111113LSep 30 · 07:10M. Cesarz5.4010151151M. Lebek1.1012177113
P. Adamus10
LOct 2 · 12:15P. Adamus1.53911111282W. Urban2.38118714113LOct 2 · 10:35P. Adamus1.5011123692K. Schaniel2.509101111113LOct 2 · 09:50R. Skotniczny1.7311411113P. Adamus2.00811761WOct 2 · 08:35P. Adamus1.501115912113W. Urban2.50617111082LOct 2 · 06:55P. Adamus1.2886100M. Cesarz3.501111123LOct 2 · 05:40P. Adamus2.00931181R. Skotniczny1.7311119113LOct 2 · 04:10P. Adamus1.83911771O. Jadach1.8311611113LOct 2 · 03:00P. Adamus1.531111861K. Schaniel2.3813811113LSep 30 · 08:00P. Adamus2.10571161M. Lebek1.6511118113LSep 30 · 06:45P. Adamus1.831112611112W. Urban1.88714117133
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