TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Skotniczny vs Milosz Cesarz 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81111841113111210
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:45 and never touched: 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Skotniczny above · Milosz Cesarz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 99 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Rafal Skotniczny at 79.4%
99 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 1–0 Milosz Cesarz Milosz Cesarz has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:4579.4%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
short by 2.4pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1529 vs Cesarz 1092
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 437 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 100% vs Cesarz 0%
Skotniczny
Correct
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 90% vs Cesarz 20%
Skotniczny
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny +6 · Cesarz -6
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Skotniczny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cesarz form (0%) is below what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.222 / Cesarz 4.00
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Skotniczny)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13227641
Skotniczny1.22
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 201 of 320
Up 2–0, closes it96% 108 of 113
Up 1–0, closes it81% 154 of 190
Cesarz4.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
Lost last 6
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog24% won 59 of 249
Down 0–1, comes back12% 21 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSkotniczny1wins
AwayCesarz0wins
Skotniczny leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSkotnicznyCesarzS − CBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match41.026.0+15.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyCesarzBasisWin rate · lifetime615 / 1041 vs 142 / 52559.1%27.1%615 / 1041 vs 142 / 525Avg sets wonper match2.21.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.733.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.22/Cesarz 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 8 · 06:25R. Skotniczny4181111113M. Cesarz26116541
R. Skotniczny10
WOct 1 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.3718911113J. Kaczmarek2.751611821WOct 1 · 15:05W. Glanowski2.49811651R. Skotniczny1.4811711113WOct 1 · 14:20W. Ptak2.2065120R. Skotniczny1.571111143WOct 1 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.25131111113J. Nowak3.501113351WOct 1 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.85913811113R. Niemiec1.85111111942WOct 1 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.35119137113J. Kaczmarek2.90711111182LOct 1 · 09:05W. Glanowski1.7011911113R. Skotniczny2.05911991WOct 1 · 08:20R. Niemiec2.05911991R. Skotniczny1.6811811113WOct 1 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.261111113J. Nowak3.503480WOct 1 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.5591112113W. Ptak2.251121091
M. Cesarz10
LSep 30 · 08:45M. Cesarz6.255740M. Guzik1.081111113LSep 30 · 07:10M. Cesarz5.4010151151M. Lebek1.1012177113LSep 30 · 06:00M. Cesarz3.658980W. Urban1.221111113LSep 30 · 04:25M. Cesarz4.378101281P. Adamus1.18111210113LSep 30 · 03:10M. Cesarz3.7551050J. Kaczmarek1.241112113LSep 25 · 17:05K. Slawinski1.161211123M. Cesarz4.35104100WSep 25 · 15:55M. Cesarz1.9541111113I. Szymanski1.75116981LSep 25 · 14:45W. Urban1.7181111113M. Cesarz2.02118341WSep 25 · 13:30K. Schaniel1.5411712542M. Cesarz2.359111011113LSep 25 · 11:55G. Wichowski1.011111113M. Cesarz10.807960
Upcoming Matches
R. Skotniczny
Oct 2 · 04:55R. Skotniczny1.73W. Urban2.00—Oct 2 · 05:40R. Skotniczny1.73P. Adamus2.00—Oct 2 · 06:30R. Skotniczny1.67O. Jadach2.10—Oct 2 · 08:10R. Skotniczny1.57K. Schaniel2.25—Oct 2 · 09:50R. Skotniczny1.73P. Adamus2.00—Oct 2 · 11:00R. Skotniczny1.73W. Urban2.00—Oct 2 · 11:50R. Skotniczny1.28M. Cesarz3.50—Oct 2 · 12:40R. Skotniczny1.67O. Jadach2.10—Oct 2 · 14:20R. Skotniczny1.57K. Schaniel2.25—
M. Cesarz
Oct 2 · 06:05M. Cesarz3.40W. Urban1.30—Oct 2 · 06:55M. Cesarz3.50P. Adamus1.28—Oct 2 · 07:45M. Cesarz3.75O. Jadach1.25—Oct 2 · 09:00M. Cesarz3.40K. Schaniel1.30—Oct 2 · 10:10M. Cesarz3.75O. Jadach1.25—Oct 2 · 11:50M. Cesarz3.50R. Skotniczny1.28—Oct 2 · 13:05M. Cesarz3.50P. Adamus1.28—Oct 2 · 14:40M. Cesarz3.40W. Urban1.30—
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