TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Milosz Cesarz vs Krzysztof Schaniel 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
61114121214611––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:59 and never touched: 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Schaniel to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilosz Cesarz above · Krzysztof Schaniel below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 86 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Krzysztof Schaniel at 73.2%
86 points played in total.
H2H Milosz Cesarz 6–12 Krzysztof Schaniel Milosz Cesarz has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:5973.2%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 0.2pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Schaniel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-12 in 18
Schaniel
Correct
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cesarz 1129 vs Schaniel 1275
Schaniel
Correct
both rated, 146 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cesarz 40% vs Schaniel 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cesarz 20% vs Schaniel 50%
Schaniel
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cesarz -1 · Schaniel -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Schaniel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schaniel form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCesarz 3.00 / Schaniel 1.363
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Schaniel)-0.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13227522
Cesarz3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog24% won 59 of 250
Down 0–1, comes back12% 21 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 114
Schaniel1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 195 of 339
Up 2–0, closes it90% 94 of 105
Up 1–0, closes it74% 145 of 196
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCesarz4wins
AwaySchaniel6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSchaniel leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCesarzn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySchaniel62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cesarz2Schaniel8n = 10Schaniel took 8 of 10
S2Cesarz4Schaniel6n = 10Schaniel took 6 of 10
S3Cesarz7Schaniel3n = 10Cesarz took 7 of 10
S4Cesarz6Schaniel3n = 9Cesarz took 6 of 9
S5Cesarz1Schaniel3n = 4Schaniel took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCesarzSchanielC − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.140.1−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCesarzSchanielBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 530 vs 854 / 172727.2%49.5%144 / 530 vs 854 / 1727Avg sets wonper match1.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SchanielCesarz 3.00/Schaniel 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Schaniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Schaniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 04:30M. Cesarz43101111113K. Schaniel35127791
WSep 25 · 13:30M. Cesarz529111011113K. Schaniel3911712542
LSep 25 · 07:30M. Cesarz4449111192K. Schaniel46111176113
WAug 25 · 03:30M. Cesarz4071111113K. Schaniel34117971
LAug 24 · 21:30M. Cesarz4055111182K. Schaniel46111158113
LAug 21 · 21:00M. Cesarz46111111762K. Schaniel52813911113
LAug 21 · 16:35M. Cesarz248970K. Schaniel331111113
LMay 8 · 03:10M. Cesarz28911171K. Schaniel4011711113
LOct 29 · 08:10M. Cesarz24641131K. Schaniel3911116113
WOct 23 · 09:30M. Cesarz4011612113K. Schaniel378111081
M. Cesarz10
WOct 2 · 10:10M. Cesarz4.3311101310113O. Jadach1.20912111292LOct 2 · 07:45O. Jadach1.2281111113M. Cesarz4.00118551WOct 2 · 06:55P. Adamus1.2886100M. Cesarz3.501111123LOct 2 · 06:05M. Cesarz3.259118101W. Urban1.3311911123WOct 2 · 04:30M. Cesarz3.40101111113K. Schaniel1.30127791LOct 2 · 03:50R. Skotniczny1.22811413123M. Cesarz4.001181111102LSep 30 · 08:45M. Cesarz6.255740M. Guzik1.081111113LSep 30 · 07:10M. Cesarz5.4010151151M. Lebek1.1012177113LSep 30 · 06:00M. Cesarz3.658980W. Urban1.221111113LSep 30 · 04:25M. Cesarz4.378101281P. Adamus1.18111210113
K. Schaniel10
LOct 2 · 08:10R. Skotniczny1.571311113K. Schaniel2.2511790LOct 2 · 07:20W. Urban1.8312119123K. Schaniel1.8310811101WOct 2 · 05:15O. Jadach1.505111191K. Schaniel2.5011139113LOct 2 · 04:30M. Cesarz3.40101111113K. Schaniel1.30127791WOct 2 · 03:00P. Adamus1.531111861K. Schaniel2.3813811113LSep 30 · 16:20K. Schaniel1.93461151R. Gajda1.7811118113LSep 30 · 15:05K. Schaniel1.5871111992B. Madej2.25118911113WSep 30 · 13:55K. Schaniel1.758111513123M. Sikon1.9511131311102WSep 30 · 12:45M. Rus3.108360K. Schaniel1.321111113WSep 30 · 11:55K. Schaniel1.651111113W. Buczynski2.056780
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