TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Adamus vs Milosz Cesarz 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8116111012––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:43 and never touched: 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPawel Adamus above · Milosz Cesarz below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 56 set 3, 10-12 · our read held Pawel Adamus at 79.4%
56 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Pawel Adamus 11–2 Milosz Cesarz Milosz Cesarz has won 2 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:4379.4%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
clears by 1.6pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-2 in 13
Adamus
Wrong
gap of 9 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1381 vs Cesarz 1134
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 247 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 0% vs Cesarz 20%
Cesarz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 40% vs Cesarz 20%
Adamus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus -5 · Cesarz -1
Adamus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Adamus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (0%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.285 / Cesarz 3.50
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Adamus)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13227297
Adamus1.28
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 222 of 349
Up 2–0, closes it99% 109 of 110
Up 1–0, closes it80% 168 of 211
Cesarz3.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog24% won 59 of 250
Down 0–1, comes back12% 21 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus8wins
AwayCesarz2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus87.5%7 of 8
AwayCesarzn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus8Cesarz2n = 10Adamus took 8 of 10
S2Adamus6Cesarz4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S3Adamus5Cesarz5n = 10split evenly
S4Adamus5Cesarz1n = 6Adamus took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusCesarzA − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.031.7+5.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusCesarzBasisWin rate · lifetime400 / 726 vs 144 / 52955.1%27.2%400 / 726 vs 144 / 529Avg sets wonper match2.21.4per matchAvg pointsper match40.333.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.28/Cesarz 3.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.4%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cesarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 06:55P. Adamus2486100M. Cesarz341111123
WSep 30 · 04:25P. Adamus44111210113M. Cesarz388101281
WSep 1 · 08:20P. Adamus331111113M. Cesarz204970
WAug 25 · 00:30P. Adamus45117511113M. Cesarz4681111882
WAug 24 · 22:20P. Adamus4071111113M. Cesarz33116791
WJul 7 · 07:35P. Adamus331111113M. Cesarz131750
WJun 24 · 01:25P. Adamus44111011123M. Cesarz365129101
LJun 23 · 19:20P. Adamus30115681M. Cesarz4291111113
WMay 12 · 07:35P. Adamus331111113M. Cesarz228770
WApr 22 · 05:10P. Adamus4413119113M. Cesarz331161151
P. Adamus10
LOct 2 · 05:40P. Adamus2.00931181R. Skotniczny1.7311119113LOct 2 · 04:10P. Adamus1.83911771O. Jadach1.8311611113LOct 2 · 03:00P. Adamus1.531111861K. Schaniel2.3813811113LSep 30 · 08:00P. Adamus2.10571161M. Lebek1.6511118113LSep 30 · 06:45P. Adamus1.831112611112W. Urban1.88714117133WSep 30 · 05:35P. Adamus1.441111113J. Kaczmarek2.628490WSep 30 · 04:25M. Cesarz4.378101281P. Adamus1.18111210113WSep 30 · 03:35P. Adamus1.8891212113M. Guzik1.8211101061WSep 30 · 02:45P. Adamus1.31111411113O. Sokolowski3.25716571LSep 30 · 01:10P. Adamus1.757770P. Kurek1.951111113
M. Cesarz10
LOct 2 · 07:45O. Jadach1.2281111113M. Cesarz4.00118551LOct 2 · 06:05M. Cesarz3.259118101W. Urban1.3311911123WOct 2 · 04:30M. Cesarz3.40101111113K. Schaniel1.30127791LOct 2 · 03:50R. Skotniczny1.22811413123M. Cesarz4.001181111102LSep 30 · 08:45M. Cesarz6.255740M. Guzik1.081111113LSep 30 · 07:10M. Cesarz5.4010151151M. Lebek1.1012177113LSep 30 · 06:00M. Cesarz3.658980W. Urban1.221111113LSep 30 · 04:25M. Cesarz4.378101281P. Adamus1.18111210113LSep 30 · 03:10M. Cesarz3.7551050J. Kaczmarek1.241112113LSep 25 · 17:05K. Slawinski1.161211123M. Cesarz4.35104100
Upcoming Matches
P. Adamus
M. Cesarz
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.