TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Adamus vs Krzysztof Schaniel 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113118811611––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:58 and never touched: 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPawel Adamus above · Krzysztof Schaniel below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 79 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Pawel Adamus at 64.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Adamus 13–12 Krzysztof Schaniel Krzysztof Schaniel has won 12 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:5864.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-12 in 25
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1443 vs Schaniel 1275
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 168 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 60% vs Schaniel 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 50% vs Schaniel 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus -2 · Schaniel -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Adamus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schaniel form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.533 / Schaniel 2.375
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Adamus)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13227473
Adamus1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 223 of 350
Up 2–0, closes it99% 109 of 110
Up 1–0, closes it79% 169 of 213
Schaniel2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 30)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 178 of 422
Down 0–1, comes back29% 66 of 227
Down 0–2, comes back11% 14 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus4wins
AwaySchaniel6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSchaniel leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus40%2 of 5
AwaySchaniel60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus5Schaniel5n = 10split evenly
S2Adamus6Schaniel4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S3Adamus3Schaniel7n = 10Schaniel took 7 of 10
S4Adamus3Schaniel5n = 8Schaniel took 5 of 8
S5Adamus3Schaniel3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusSchanielA − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.344.4−0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusSchanielBasisWin rate · lifetime400 / 722 vs 856 / 172755.4%49.6%400 / 722 vs 856 / 1727Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.53/Schaniel 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Schaniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 23:45P. Adamus5411121110102K. Schaniel51414912123
WSep 15 · 15:50P. Adamus46111176113K. Schaniel4779111192
LSep 7 · 01:10P. Adamus43101161152K. Schaniel46124118113
LAug 25 · 04:20P. Adamus4111111091K. Schaniel4371312113
LAug 24 · 18:45P. Adamus5411111111102K. Schaniel53913613123
WAug 15 · 06:25P. Adamus46411911113K. Schaniel4811811992
WAug 5 · 01:25P. Adamus331111113K. Schaniel237880
LAug 4 · 19:20P. Adamus35711891K. Schaniel4211911113
WJul 11 · 01:00P. Adamus6312111211173K. Schaniel55146146152
LJul 10 · 18:55P. Adamus2881280K. Schaniel361114113
P. Adamus10
LOct 2 · 04:10P. Adamus1.83911771O. Jadach1.8311611113LSep 30 · 08:00P. Adamus2.10571161M. Lebek1.6511118113LSep 30 · 06:45P. Adamus1.831112611112W. Urban1.88714117133WSep 30 · 05:35P. Adamus1.441111113J. Kaczmarek2.628490WSep 30 · 04:25M. Cesarz4.378101281P. Adamus1.18111210113WSep 30 · 03:35P. Adamus1.8891212113M. Guzik1.8211101061WSep 30 · 02:45P. Adamus1.31111411113O. Sokolowski3.25716571LSep 30 · 01:10P. Adamus1.757770P. Kurek1.951111113LSep 30 · 00:00P. Adamus1.52911111162M. Lebek2.30111359113WSep 29 · 22:25P. Adamus1.75111110133M. Adamus1.957912111
K. Schaniel10
LSep 30 · 16:20K. Schaniel1.93461151R. Gajda1.7811118113LSep 30 · 15:05K. Schaniel1.5871111992B. Madej2.25118911113WSep 30 · 13:55K. Schaniel1.758111513123M. Sikon1.9511131311102WSep 30 · 12:45M. Rus3.108360K. Schaniel1.321111113WSep 30 · 11:55K. Schaniel1.651111113W. Buczynski2.056780LSep 30 · 10:20K. Schaniel1.5011911792M. Rus2.35911611113LSep 30 · 09:05K. Schaniel1.5711911582B. Madej2.25811511113LSep 30 · 07:55K. Schaniel1.8511991162M. Sikon1.85611118113WSep 30 · 06:45R. Gajda1.801211118132K. Schaniel1.91149811153LSep 30 · 05:55K. Schaniel1.841110111192W. Buczynski1.86131285113
Upcoming Matches
P. Adamus
Oct 2 · 05:40P. Adamus2.00R. Skotniczny1.73—Oct 2 · 06:55P. Adamus1.28M. Cesarz3.50—Oct 2 · 08:35P. Adamus1.44W. Urban2.63—Oct 2 · 09:50P. Adamus2.00R. Skotniczny1.73—Oct 2 · 10:35P. Adamus1.50K. Schaniel2.50—Oct 2 · 12:15P. Adamus1.44W. Urban2.63—Oct 2 · 13:05P. Adamus1.28M. Cesarz3.50—Oct 2 · 13:55P. Adamus1.83O. Jadach1.83—
K. Schaniel
Oct 2 · 05:15K. Schaniel2.50O. Jadach1.50—Oct 2 · 07:20K. Schaniel1.83W. Urban1.83—Oct 2 · 08:10K. Schaniel2.25R. Skotniczny1.57—Oct 2 · 09:00K. Schaniel1.30M. Cesarz3.40—Oct 2 · 10:35K. Schaniel2.50P. Adamus1.50—Oct 2 · 11:25K. Schaniel2.50O. Jadach1.50—Oct 2 · 13:30K. Schaniel1.83W. Urban1.83—Oct 2 · 14:20K. Schaniel2.25R. Skotniczny1.57—
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