TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Milosz Cesarz vs Wojciech Urban 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111198111012––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:58 and never touched: 77.2% is still 77.2%
Graded at full timeWojciech Urban to win
77.2%
77.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilosz Cesarz above · Wojciech Urban below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 81 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Wojciech Urban at 77.2%
81 points played in total.
H2H Milosz Cesarz 2–14 Wojciech Urban Milosz Cesarz has won 2 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5877.2%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
clears by 2.2pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Urban
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-14 in 16
Urban
Correct
gap of 12 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cesarz 1134 vs Urban 1339
Urban
Correct
both rated, 205 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cesarz 20% vs Urban 40%
Urban
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cesarz 20% vs Urban 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cesarz +1 · Urban -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% · Strong (leans Urban) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urban form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCesarz 3.25 / Urban 1.333
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Urban)+2.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13227365
Cesarz3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog24% won 59 of 250
Down 0–1, comes back12% 21 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 114
Urban1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 171 of 297
Up 2–0, closes it97% 71 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it74% 123 of 166
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCesarz1wins
AwayUrban9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderUrban leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCesarz14.3%1 of 7
AwayUrban100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cesarz7Urban3n = 10Cesarz took 7 of 10
S2Cesarz2Urban8n = 10Urban took 8 of 10
S3Cesarz1Urban9n = 10Urban took 9 of 10
S4Cesarz2Urban6n = 8Urban took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCesarzUrbanC − UBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match33.841.6−7.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCesarzUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 529 vs 807 / 171227.2%47.1%144 / 529 vs 807 / 1712Avg sets wonper match1.41.9per matchAvg pointsper match33.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanCesarz 3.25/Urban 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.2%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 06:05M. Cesarz389118101W. Urban4311911123
LSep 30 · 06:00M. Cesarz258980W. Urban331111113
LSep 25 · 14:45M. Cesarz26118341W. Urban4181111113
WSep 19 · 06:00M. Cesarz3611113113W. Urban26431181
LSep 15 · 06:00M. Cesarz29112791W. Urban4291111113
LAug 24 · 23:30M. Cesarz3811107101W. Urban4381211123
LAug 24 · 19:10M. Cesarz491214211102W. Urban571016118123
LAug 6 · 07:10M. Cesarz137150W. Urban331111113
LJul 22 · 04:25M. Cesarz461110123102W. Urban527121011123
LJun 23 · 22:35M. Cesarz3811111151W. Urban4691313113
M. Cesarz10
LOct 2 · 07:45O. Jadach1.2281111113M. Cesarz4.00118551WOct 2 · 06:55P. Adamus1.2886100M. Cesarz3.501111123WOct 2 · 04:30M. Cesarz3.40101111113K. Schaniel1.30127791LOct 2 · 03:50R. Skotniczny1.22811413123M. Cesarz4.001181111102LSep 30 · 08:45M. Cesarz6.255740M. Guzik1.081111113LSep 30 · 07:10M. Cesarz5.4010151151M. Lebek1.1012177113LSep 30 · 06:00M. Cesarz3.658980W. Urban1.221111113LSep 30 · 04:25M. Cesarz4.378101281P. Adamus1.18111210113LSep 30 · 03:10M. Cesarz3.7551050J. Kaczmarek1.241112113LSep 25 · 17:05K. Slawinski1.161211123M. Cesarz4.35104100
W. Urban10
WOct 2 · 07:20W. Urban1.8312119123K. Schaniel1.8310811101LOct 2 · 04:55R. Skotniczny1.731171012113W. Urban2.00911121092WOct 2 · 03:25O. Jadach1.839511101W. Urban1.8311118123LOct 1 · 14:20P. Gumulinski1.5711811113W. Urban2.25611941LOct 1 · 13:30M. Baron2.2011911113W. Urban1.61911661WOct 1 · 11:25R. Idaczyk1.73511471W. Urban2.0011911113WOct 1 · 10:35P. Slosarczyk3.75159101322W. Urban1.2513111211113LOct 1 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.10159114113W. Urban1.67131151192LOct 1 · 08:10P. Gumulinski1.831112113W. Urban1.8361090WSep 30 · 06:00M. Cesarz3.658980W. Urban1.221111113
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