TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Adamus vs Rafal Skotniczny 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911311119811––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:37 and never touched: 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Adamus above · Rafal Skotniczny below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Rafal Skotniczny at 56.9%
73 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Adamus 3–4 Rafal Skotniczny Pawel Adamus has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:3756.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1413 vs Skotniczny 1536
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 123 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 20% vs Skotniczny 100%
Skotniczny
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 40% vs Skotniczny 90%
Skotniczny
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus -4 · Skotniczny +8
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Skotniczny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skotniczny form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 2.00 / Skotniczny 1.727
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Skotniczny)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13227341
Adamus2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 88 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back25% 25 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 47
Skotniczny1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 210 of 329
Up 2–0, closes it96% 110 of 115
Up 1–0, closes it82% 161 of 197
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeAdamus3wins
AwaySkotniczny4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus50%2 of 4
AwaySkotniczny66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus4Skotniczny3n = 7Adamus took 4 of 7
S2Adamus3Skotniczny4n = 7Skotniczny took 4 of 7
S3Adamus2Skotniczny5n = 7Skotniczny took 5 of 7
S4Adamus2Skotniczny1n = 3Adamus took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricAdamusSkotnicznyA − SBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match38.638.0+0.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusSkotnicznyBasisWin rate · lifetime400 / 724 vs 617 / 104355.3%59.2%400 / 724 vs 617 / 1043Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznyAdamus 2.00/Skotniczny 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.9%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJun 29 · 15:30P. Adamus3191570R. Skotniczny391117113
LJun 29 · 09:30P. Adamus5214991192R. Skotniczny511211116113
WMar 24 · 16:55P. Adamus351112123R. Skotniczny27710100
LMar 24 · 10:55P. Adamus391110991R. Skotniczny4391211113
LJul 10 · 08:45P. Adamus2613850R. Skotniczny371511113
WJan 3 · 14:30P. Adamus351212113R. Skotniczny29101090
WJan 3 · 08:30P. Adamus529111011113R. Skotniczny4011512572
P. Adamus10
LOct 2 · 04:10P. Adamus1.83911771O. Jadach1.8311611113LOct 2 · 03:00P. Adamus1.531111861K. Schaniel2.3813811113LSep 30 · 08:00P. Adamus2.10571161M. Lebek1.6511118113LSep 30 · 06:45P. Adamus1.831112611112W. Urban1.88714117133WSep 30 · 05:35P. Adamus1.441111113J. Kaczmarek2.628490WSep 30 · 04:25M. Cesarz4.378101281P. Adamus1.18111210113WSep 30 · 03:35P. Adamus1.8891212113M. Guzik1.8211101061WSep 30 · 02:45P. Adamus1.31111411113O. Sokolowski3.25716571LSep 30 · 01:10P. Adamus1.757770P. Kurek1.951111113LSep 30 · 00:00P. Adamus1.52911111162M. Lebek2.30111359113
R. Skotniczny10
WOct 2 · 04:55R. Skotniczny1.731171012113W. Urban2.00911121092WOct 2 · 03:50R. Skotniczny1.22811413123M. Cesarz4.001181111102WOct 1 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.3718911113J. Kaczmarek2.751611821WOct 1 · 15:05W. Glanowski2.49811651R. Skotniczny1.4811711113WOct 1 · 14:20W. Ptak2.2065120R. Skotniczny1.571111143WOct 1 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.25131111113J. Nowak3.501113351WOct 1 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.85913811113R. Niemiec1.85111111942WOct 1 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.35119137113J. Kaczmarek2.90711111182LOct 1 · 09:05W. Glanowski1.7011911113R. Skotniczny2.05911991WOct 1 · 08:20R. Niemiec2.05911991R. Skotniczny1.6811811113
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