TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jaroslaw Badura vs Kacper Slawinski 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811119115611119
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:12 and never touched: 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeKacper Slawinski to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslaw Badura above · Kacper Slawinski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 92 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Kacper Slawinski at 58.5%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslaw Badura 0–1 Kacper Slawinski Jaroslaw Badura has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Slawinski beat Badura 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:1258.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Slawinski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Badura 1423 vs Slawinski 1518
Slawinski
Wrong
both rated, 95 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Badura 60% vs Slawinski 100%
Slawinski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Badura 50% vs Slawinski 90%
Slawinski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Badura +2 · Slawinski +7
Slawinski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Slawinski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slawinski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBadura 2.20 / Slawinski 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Slawinski)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13243462
Badura2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 48 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back22% 15 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Slawinski1.61
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite68% won 150 of 221
Up 2–0, closes it99% 73 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it80% 110 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeBadura0wins
AwaySlawinski1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderSlawinski leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricBaduraSlawinskiB − SBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match44.051.0−7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaduraSlawinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime308 / 560 vs 621 / 99555%62.4%308 / 560 vs 621 / 995Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SlawinskiBadura 2.20/Slawinski 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Slawinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Badura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 5 · 06:30J. Badura44111011842K. Slawinski51812911113
J. Badura10
WOct 5 · 12:40S. Szostok1.67911114102J. Badura2.10114711123WOct 5 · 11:50O. Vincenec2.101011271J. Badura1.6712911113LOct 5 · 11:00J. Badura2.38911111182J. Pruszkowski1.53111397113WOct 5 · 09:50J. Badura1.6161211113P. Przewlocki2.201110451LOct 5 · 08:10J. Badura2.101110781S. Szostok1.6781211113LOct 5 · 06:30K. Slawinski1.67812911113J. Badura2.10111011842LOct 5 · 05:40P. Przewlocki1.831381110123J. Badura1.831111612102WOct 5 · 04:55J. Badura2.2513711113J. Pruszkowski1.571111881WOct 5 · 03:50J. Badura1.671111113O. Vincenec2.102870LOct 4 · 05:05M. Durda1.871211113J. Badura1.8310570
K. Slawinski10
WOct 5 · 13:30J. Pruszkowski1.7311511772K. Slawinski2.00511911113WOct 5 · 11:25S. Szostok2.0077111162K. Slawinski1.73111198113WOct 5 · 10:35P. Przewlocki2.6396131192K. Slawinski1.441111117113WOct 5 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.75911781K. Slawinski1.4011711113WOct 5 · 07:45K. Slawinski1.40118117113O. Vincenec2.7581171172WOct 5 · 06:30K. Slawinski1.67812911113J. Badura2.10111011842WOct 5 · 05:15K. Slawinski1.83121110113S. Szostok1.831051261LOct 5 · 04:10P. Przewlocki2.63912129113K. Slawinski1.441110101192WOct 5 · 03:25K. Slawinski1.9111118113J. Pruszkowski1.80861191WSep 25 · 17:05K. Slawinski1.161211123M. Cesarz4.35104100
Upcoming Matches
J. Badura
K. Slawinski
Nothing scheduled
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