TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Sebastian Szostok vs Kacper Slawinski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711711119118611
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:24 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeKacper Slawinski to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Kacper Slawinski @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingSebastian Szostok above · Kacper Slawinski below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 92 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Kacper Slawinski at 54.5%
92 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Szostok 19–31 Kacper Slawinski Sebastian Szostok has won 19 of their 50 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 10:2454.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Slawinski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-31 in 50
Slawinski
Correct
gap of 12 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1445 vs Slawinski 1502
Slawinski
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 60% vs Slawinski 100%
Slawinski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 70% vs Slawinski 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok -1 · Slawinski +5
Slawinski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Slawinski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slawinski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 2.00 / Slawinski 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Slawinski)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13243397
Szostok2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 72 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back32% 28 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Slawinski1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite68% won 150 of 221
Up 2–0, closes it99% 73 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it80% 110 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostok3wins
AwaySlawinski7wins
Slawinski leads 7–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostokn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySlawinski87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok2Slawinski8n = 10Slawinski took 8 of 10
S2Szostok4Slawinski6n = 10Slawinski took 6 of 10
S3Szostok7Slawinski3n = 10Szostok took 7 of 10
S4Szostok3Slawinski7n = 10Slawinski took 7 of 10
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away770%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostokSlawinskiSzostok − SlawinskiBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.242.9−5.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokSlawinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime907 / 1568 vs 619 / 99357.8%62.3%907 / 1568 vs 619 / 993Avg sets wonper match2.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SlawinskiSzostok 2.00/Slawinski 1.73
Hit
What we said
54.5%
Slawinski · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Kacper Slawinski @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
2–3
Slawinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 05:15S. Szostok331051261K. Slawinski44121110113
LSep 23 · 13:30S. Szostok419128121K. Slawinski46111011143
LSep 23 · 07:20S. Szostok33613591K. Slawinski44111111113
WSep 8 · 16:20S. Szostok4841215173K. Slawinski49111013151
LSep 8 · 06:45S. Szostok32871161K. Slawinski4111118113
LAug 13 · 14:45S. Szostok29491151K. Slawinski4111118113
WAug 13 · 06:45S. Szostok4011711113K. Slawinski38911991
WJan 29 · 16:30S. Szostok3913411113K. Slawinski371111871
LJan 29 · 10:30S. Szostok387128111K. Slawinski45111011133
LJan 15 · 14:30S. Szostok39891391K. Slawinski44111111113
S. Szostok10
LOct 5 · 10:10O. Vincenec2.25118113113S. Szostok1.5771151192WOct 5 · 09:25S. Szostok2.108111110113J. Pruszkowski1.6711671262WOct 5 · 08:10J. Badura2.101110781S. Szostok1.6781211113WOct 5 · 07:20J. Pruszkowski1.8310730S. Szostok1.831211113LOct 5 · 05:15K. Slawinski1.83121110113S. Szostok1.831051261LOct 5 · 04:30O. Vincenec2.10117138123S. Szostok1.674111111102WOct 5 · 03:00P. Przewlocki2.38119113102S. Szostok1.53511811123WOct 4 · 17:05S. Szostok1.27141011113I. Szymanski3.251212841WOct 4 · 15:30S. Szostok2.40118117113P. Jedrzejak1.4771161172WOct 4 · 14:20S. Szostok1.50101211113M. Malecha2.401210781
K. Slawinski10
WOct 5 · 10:35P. Przewlocki2.6396131192K. Slawinski1.441111117113WOct 5 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.75911781K. Slawinski1.4011711113WOct 5 · 07:45K. Slawinski1.40118117113O. Vincenec2.7581171172WOct 5 · 06:30K. Slawinski1.67812911113J. Badura2.10111011842WOct 5 · 05:15K. Slawinski1.83121110113S. Szostok1.831051261LOct 5 · 04:10P. Przewlocki2.63912129113K. Slawinski1.441110101192WOct 5 · 03:25K. Slawinski1.9111118113J. Pruszkowski1.80861191WSep 25 · 17:05K. Slawinski1.161211123M. Cesarz4.35104100WSep 25 · 15:30K. Slawinski1.4211119113W. Urban2.55971171LSep 25 · 14:20K. Slawinski1.52119871K. Schaniel2.3981111113
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