TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Sebastian Szostok vs Jaroslaw Badura 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111141174111012
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:37 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSebastian Szostok above · Jaroslaw Badura below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 90 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Sebastian Szostok at 57.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Szostok 10–4 Jaroslaw Badura Jaroslaw Badura has won 4 of their 14 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Szostok beat Badura 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:3757.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Szostok
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-4 in 14
Szostok
Wrong
gap of 6 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1435 vs Badura 1411
Szostok
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 60% vs Badura 40%
Szostok
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 60% vs Badura 40%
Szostok
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok -2 · Badura +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Szostok) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 1.666 / Badura 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Szostok)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13243721
Szostok1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 339 of 522
Up 2–0, closes it94% 134 of 142
Up 1–0, closes it80% 222 of 278
Badura2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 48 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back22% 15 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostok7wins
AwayBadura3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostok100%5 of 5
AwayBadura60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok5Badura5n = 10split evenly
S2Szostok5Badura5n = 10split evenly
S3Szostok8Badura2n = 10Szostok took 8 of 10
S4Szostok5Badura2n = 7Szostok took 5 of 7
S5Szostok3Badura2n = 5Szostok took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostokBaduraS − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.238.1+2.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokBaduraBasisWin rate · lifetime907 / 1569 vs 307 / 55957.8%54.9%907 / 1569 vs 307 / 559Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.237.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSzostok 1.67/Badura 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Badura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 08:10S. Szostok4281211113J. Badura361110781
WAug 31 · 01:55S. Szostok361112133J. Badura29810110
WAug 30 · 19:55S. Szostok48611119113J. Badura4011741172
WJan 2 · 01:00S. Szostok331111113J. Badura183960
LJan 1 · 17:00S. Szostok35881181J. Badura4111118113
LOct 27 · 03:20S. Szostok4165111182J. Badura45111175113
LOct 26 · 21:20S. Szostok44810111142J. Badura45111265113
WOct 19 · 23:10S. Szostok44121511153J. Badura531011118132
WOct 19 · 17:10S. Szostok351311113J. Badura2511950
WOct 12 · 21:10S. Szostok44114711113J. Badura4991111992
S. Szostok10
LOct 5 · 13:55S. Szostok1.576770P. Przewlocki2.251111113LOct 5 · 11:25S. Szostok2.0077111162K. Slawinski1.73111198113LOct 5 · 10:10O. Vincenec2.25118113113S. Szostok1.5771151192WOct 5 · 09:25S. Szostok2.108111110113J. Pruszkowski1.6711671262WOct 5 · 08:10J. Badura2.101110781S. Szostok1.6781211113WOct 5 · 07:20J. Pruszkowski1.8310730S. Szostok1.831211113LOct 5 · 05:15K. Slawinski1.83121110113S. Szostok1.831051261LOct 5 · 04:30O. Vincenec2.10117138123S. Szostok1.674111111102WOct 5 · 03:00P. Przewlocki2.38119113102S. Szostok1.53511811123WOct 4 · 17:05S. Szostok1.27141011113I. Szymanski3.251212841
J. Badura10
WOct 5 · 11:50O. Vincenec2.101011271J. Badura1.6712911113LOct 5 · 11:00J. Badura2.38911111182J. Pruszkowski1.53111397113WOct 5 · 09:50J. Badura1.6161211113P. Przewlocki2.201110451LOct 5 · 08:10J. Badura2.101110781S. Szostok1.6781211113LOct 5 · 06:30K. Slawinski1.67812911113J. Badura2.10111011842LOct 5 · 05:40P. Przewlocki1.831381110123J. Badura1.831111612102WOct 5 · 04:55J. Badura2.2513711113J. Pruszkowski1.571111881WOct 5 · 03:50J. Badura1.671111113O. Vincenec2.102870LOct 4 · 05:05M. Durda1.871211113J. Badura1.8310570LOct 4 · 03:55J. Badura1.7011111010122M. Sikon2.05861212143
Upcoming Matches
S. Szostok
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J. Badura
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