TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Zbigniew Sobkow vs Lukasz Oracz 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012211311––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:46 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 49 set 3, 3-11 · our read held Lukasz Oracz at 55.8%
49 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 0–2 Lukasz Oracz Zbigniew Sobkow has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:4655.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1332 vs Oracz 1376
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 40% vs Oracz 60%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 30% vs Oracz 50%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow -2 · Oracz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Oracz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 2.10 / Oracz 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Oracz)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13264355
Sobkow2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 12 days ago (Sep 27) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 20 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Oracz1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 355 of 562
Up 2–0, closes it97% 200 of 207
Up 1–0, closes it81% 278 of 342
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSobkow0wins
AwayOracz2wins
Oracz leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricSobkowOraczS − OBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match28.038.0−10.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 140 vs 873 / 158847.1%55%66 / 140 vs 873 / 1588Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OraczSobkow 2.10/Oracz 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 21 · 10:35Z. Sobkow197750L. Oracz331111113
LAug 21 · 03:00Z. Sobkow3711111051L. Oracz4313712113
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 27 · 13:55A. Cichocki1.571111113Z. Sobkow2.257630LSep 27 · 13:05P. Polok1.53131112113Z. Sobkow2.381581061WSep 27 · 12:15Z. Sobkow2.50131112113S. Szostok1.501551081LSep 27 · 10:35Z. Sobkow2.381081181W. Wojtaszczyk1.5312119113WSep 27 · 09:50J. Wieczerzak1.361041171Z. Sobkow3.0012116113LSep 27 · 08:35Z. Sobkow2.506960S. Szostok1.501111113LSep 27 · 06:55Z. Sobkow2.2586111162P. Polok1.57111166113LSep 27 · 05:40Z. Sobkow2.386560J. Wieczerzak1.531111113LSep 27 · 04:10Z. Sobkow2.631110111272A. Cichocki1.44712714113WSep 27 · 03:00Z. Sobkow2.501111113W. Wojtaszczyk1.508670
L. Oracz10
LOct 9 · 04:30L. Oracz1.738790M. Baron2.001111113WOct 7 · 14:20L. Oracz2.101111113J. Pruszkowski1.679890LOct 7 · 12:40K. Slawinski1.61111211113L. Oracz2.20914761LOct 7 · 11:50O. Vincenec1.7311125113L. Oracz2.006101171WOct 7 · 11:00L. Oracz1.30671111113P. Slosarczyk3.4011115452WOct 7 · 09:50L. Oracz1.671119113P. Przewlocki2.1021730LOct 7 · 08:10L. Oracz2.20127471J. Pruszkowski1.61101111113LOct 7 · 06:30K. Slawinski1.57111494113L. Oracz2.25612111152LOct 7 · 05:40P. Przewlocki2.00119117123L. Oracz1.73811711102WOct 7 · 04:55L. Oracz1.301111173P. Slosarczyk3.4068150
Upcoming Matches
Z. Sobkow
Oct 9 · 05:40Z. Sobkow1.73J. Kaczmarek2.00—Oct 9 · 06:30Z. Sobkow1.73R. Idaczyk2.00—Oct 9 · 08:10Z. Sobkow1.83M. Baron1.83—Oct 9 · 09:50Z. Sobkow—J. Kaczmarek——Oct 9 · 11:00Z. Sobkow—M. Jozefiak——Oct 9 · 11:50Z. Sobkow1.91L. Oracz1.80—Oct 9 · 12:40Z. Sobkow1.44O. Sokolowski2.63—Oct 9 · 14:20Z. Sobkow1.83M. Baron1.83—
L. Oracz
Oct 9 · 06:05L. Oracz1.50M. Jozefiak2.50—Oct 9 · 06:55L. Oracz1.57J. Kaczmarek2.25—Oct 9 · 07:45L. Oracz1.80R. Idaczyk1.91—Oct 9 · 09:00L. Oracz1.67M. Baron2.10—Oct 9 · 10:10L. Oracz1.36O. Sokolowski3.00—Oct 9 · 11:50L. Oracz1.80Z. Sobkow1.91—Oct 9 · 13:05L. Oracz1.57J. Kaczmarek2.25—Oct 9 · 14:40L. Oracz1.50M. Jozefiak2.50—
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