TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Zbigniew Sobkow vs Jakub Kaczmarek 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210511911115711
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:44 and never touched: 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Sobkow to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Jakub Kaczmarek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 92 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Zbigniew Sobkow at 58.5%
92 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 1–0 Jakub Kaczmarek Jakub Kaczmarek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:4458.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sobkow
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1319 vs Kaczmarek 1222
Sobkow
Wrong
both rated, 97 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 40% vs Kaczmarek 20%
Sobkow
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 40% vs Kaczmarek 20%
Sobkow
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow -1 · Kaczmarek -4
Kaczmarek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Sobkow) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaczmarek form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 1.615 / Kaczmarek 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Sobkow)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13267300
Sobkow1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 37 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it67% 26 of 39
Kaczmarek2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 182 of 513
Down 0–1, comes back18% 57 of 316
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 179
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSobkow1wins
AwayKaczmarek0wins
Sobkow leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSobkowKaczmarekS − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match36.024.0+12.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowKaczmarekBasisWin rate · lifetime68 / 145 vs 517 / 137446.9%37.6%68 / 145 vs 517 / 1374Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SobkowSobkow 1.61/Kaczmarek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Sobkow · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kaczmarek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 9 · 05:40Z. Sobkow361111143J. Kaczmarek2475120
Z. Sobkow10
LOct 9 · 08:10Z. Sobkow1.83911991M. Baron1.8311311113WOct 9 · 06:30R. Idaczyk2.002830Z. Sobkow1.731111113WOct 9 · 05:40J. Kaczmarek2.0075120Z. Sobkow1.731111143LOct 9 · 04:55Z. Sobkow1.735670M. Jozefiak2.001111113LOct 9 · 03:50Z. Sobkow2.1010230L. Oracz1.671211113LSep 27 · 13:55A. Cichocki1.571111113Z. Sobkow2.257630LSep 27 · 13:05P. Polok1.53131112113Z. Sobkow2.381581061WSep 27 · 12:15Z. Sobkow2.50131112113S. Szostok1.501551081LSep 27 · 10:35Z. Sobkow2.381081181W. Wojtaszczyk1.5312119113WSep 27 · 09:50J. Wieczerzak1.361041171Z. Sobkow3.0012116113
J. Kaczmarek10
WOct 9 · 10:35J. Kaczmarek1.838111115113M. Baron1.83119131392LOct 9 · 08:35J. Kaczmarek1.9111781592M. Jozefiak1.804111113113LOct 9 · 06:55J. Kaczmarek2.251171161L. Oracz1.5713119113LOct 9 · 05:40J. Kaczmarek2.0075120Z. Sobkow1.731111143LOct 9 · 04:10J. Kaczmarek2.25711761R. Idaczyk1.5711711113WOct 9 · 03:00J. Kaczmarek1.83711611113M. Baron1.8311911482LOct 8 · 16:20J. Badura1.4211411113J. Kaczmarek2.68811541LOct 8 · 15:30J. Nowak2.05611411113J. Kaczmarek1.7011811592WOct 8 · 14:45J. Kaczmarek2.5681112113K. Schaniel1.461161071LOct 8 · 13:10J. Kaczmarek1.8511712542P. Slosarczyk1.859111011113
Upcoming Matches
Z. Sobkow
Oct 9 · 11:50Z. Sobkow2.50L. Oracz1.50—Oct 9 · 12:40Z. Sobkow1.50O. Sokolowski2.50—Oct 9 · 14:20Z. Sobkow1.67M. Baron2.10—Oct 10 · 04:10Z. Sobkow2.50M. Lach1.50—Oct 10 · 06:55Z. Sobkow1.44G. Sawicki2.63—Oct 10 · 09:50Z. Sobkow1.36I. Szymanski3.00—Oct 10 · 12:15Z. Sobkow2.50S. Szostok1.50—Oct 10 · 13:05Z. Sobkow3.00J. Wieczerzak1.36—
J. Kaczmarek
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