TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Sawicki vs Sebastian Szostok 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113114811911––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:00 and never touched: 78.6% is still 78.6%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
78.6%
78.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Sawicki above · Sebastian Szostok below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 78 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Sebastian Szostok at 78.6%
78 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Sawicki 3–19 Sebastian Szostok Grzegorz Sawicki has won 3 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0078.6%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
clears by 1.7pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-19 in 22
Szostok
Correct
gap of 16 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sawicki 1229 vs Szostok 1413
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 184 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sawicki 20% vs Szostok 40%
Szostok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sawicki 20% vs Szostok 40%
Szostok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sawicki +1 · Szostok -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Szostok) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSawicki 3.40 / Szostok 1.30
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Szostok)+1.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13268475
Sawicki3.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 126 of 373
Down 0–1, comes back19% 47 of 244
Down 0–2, comes back8% 13 of 159
Szostok1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 328 of 507
Up 2–0, closes it96% 129 of 135
Up 1–0, closes it80% 212 of 265
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSawicki0wins
AwaySzostok10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSawickin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySzostok100%9 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sawicki1Szostok9n = 10Szostok took 9 of 10
S2Sawicki2Szostok8n = 10Szostok took 8 of 10
S3Sawicki3Szostok7n = 10Szostok took 7 of 10
S4Sawicki2Szostok4n = 6Szostok took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSawickiSzostokSawicki − SzostokBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match30.740.0−9.3per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSawickiSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 945 vs 891 / 154439.1%57.7%369 / 945 vs 891 / 1544Avg sets wonper match1.72.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.740.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSawicki 3.40/Szostok 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.6%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 10 · 06:05G. Sawicki391111891S. Szostok3913411113
LAug 21 · 21:45G. Sawicki371091171S. Szostok4212118113
LJun 21 · 05:05G. Sawicki2271050S. Szostok341112113
LJun 20 · 20:45G. Sawicki207490S. Szostok331111113
LJun 7 · 02:45G. Sawicki228860S. Szostok331111113
LJun 6 · 23:05G. Sawicki24511441S. Szostok4011711113
LApr 26 · 22:00G. Sawicki1941050S. Szostok341112113
LApr 26 · 18:00G. Sawicki4611971272S. Szostok529111110113
LFeb 1 · 01:20G. Sawicki3973111172S. Szostok49111197113
LJan 31 · 21:20G. Sawicki391191181S. Szostok4413119113
G. Sawicki10
WOct 10 · 04:30G. Sawicki3.0011114113W. Wojtaszczyk1.36761191LOct 10 · 03:50J. Wieczerzak1.441111113G. Sawicki2.639680LOct 10 · 02:35G. Sawicki1.53111191042M. Cesarz2.38891112113LOct 10 · 01:00G. Sawicki2.757890K. Juszczyk1.401111113LOct 9 · 23:45G. Sawicki4.331081251O. Jadach1.20121110113LOct 9 · 22:10G. Sawicki2.7579130K. Schaniel1.401111153WOct 9 · 21:00G. Sawicki1.5311129113R. Adach2.384101191LOct 5 · 02:00G. Sawicki2.009121091M. Adamus1.73111012113LOct 5 · 00:45G. Sawicki2.005111291M. Sikon1.73111310113LOct 4 · 23:35G. Sawicki2.15281391A. Ruszkiewicz1.60111111113
S. Szostok10
LOct 10 · 04:55J. Wieczerzak1.83119811113S. Szostok1.8331111562WOct 10 · 03:25M. Lach1.8099111162S. Szostok1.91111142113WOct 8 · 14:40W. Urban2.389118151S. Szostok1.5311511173LOct 8 · 13:30S. Szostok2.201151011102K. Slawinski1.61811128123LOct 8 · 12:15J. Pelka1.91118129113S. Szostok1.80911101162LOct 8 · 11:00J. Pruszkowski1.6191111113S. Szostok2.20116981LOct 8 · 09:25O. Sokolowski2.101012118113S. Szostok1.67121091172WOct 8 · 08:35J. Pelka2.2011581192S. Szostok1.61711115113WOct 8 · 07:20S. Szostok2.201215113K. Slawinski1.61101380LOct 8 · 06:05W. Urban2.1012611113S. Szostok1.671011761
Upcoming Matches
G. Sawicki
Oct 10 · 07:45G. Sawicki2.63M. Lach1.44—Oct 10 · 17:30G. Sawicki—R. Wiza——Oct 10 · 19:10G. Sawicki—M. Sikon——Oct 10 · 19:55G. Sawicki—R. Szymik——Oct 10 · 21:55G. Sawicki—O. Jadach——Oct 10 · 22:40G. Sawicki—K. Juszczyk——Oct 10 · 23:30G. Sawicki—M. Sikon——Oct 11 · 01:10G. Sawicki—R. Wiza——Oct 11 · 01:55G. Sawicki—R. Szymik——Oct 11 · 03:55G. Sawicki—O. Jadach——
S. Szostok
Oct 10 · 07:20S. Szostok2.00W. Wojtaszczyk1.73—Oct 10 · 08:35S. Szostok1.44Z. Sobkow2.63—Oct 10 · 09:25S. Szostok2.10M. Lach1.67—Oct 10 · 11:00S. Szostok1.20I. Szymanski4.33—Oct 10 · 12:15S. Szostok1.50Z. Sobkow2.50—Oct 10 · 13:30S. Szostok2.00W. Wojtaszczyk1.73—Oct 10 · 14:40S. Szostok1.83J. Wieczerzak1.83—
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