TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jerzy Pelka vs Sebastian Szostok 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117511811115911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:37 and never touched: 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Sebastian Szostok @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingJerzy Pelka above · Sebastian Szostok below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 89 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Sebastian Szostok at 55.7%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Pelka 11–23 Sebastian Szostok Jerzy Pelka has won 11 of their 34 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 07:3755.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 6.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-23 in 34
Szostok
Correct
gap of 12 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pelka 1366 vs Szostok 1432
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pelka 40% vs Szostok 60%
Szostok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pelka 40% vs Szostok 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pelka +1 · Szostok +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Szostok) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPelka 2.20 / Szostok 1.615
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Szostok)-6.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13258849
Pelka2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 87 of 190
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 51
Szostok1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 335 of 516
Up 2–0, closes it95% 131 of 138
Up 1–0, closes it80% 219 of 273
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePelka3wins
AwaySzostok7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePelka60%3 of 5
AwaySzostok100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pelka5Szostok5n = 10split evenly
S2Pelka7Szostok3n = 10Pelka took 7 of 10
S3Pelka2Szostok8n = 10Szostok took 8 of 10
S4Pelka4Szostok3n = 7Pelka took 4 of 7
S5Pelka0Szostok3n = 3Szostok took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPelkaSzostokP − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.039.3−1.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPelkaSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime445 / 941 vs 893 / 154547.3%57.8%445 / 941 vs 893 / 1545Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.140.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokPelka 2.20/Szostok 1.61
Hit
What we said
55.7%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Sebastian Szostok @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
2–3
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 09:00J. Pelka4313128101S. Szostok48151011123
WSep 18 · 04:30J. Pelka331111113S. Szostok236980
LAug 20 · 13:10J. Pelka4591151282S. Szostok471141110113
LAug 20 · 05:30J. Pelka326121041S. Szostok44111012113
LJul 25 · 13:55J. Pelka48111171182S. Szostok50613119113
LJul 25 · 07:55J. Pelka341161251S. Szostok4371114113
WJun 1 · 11:30J. Pelka391117113S. Szostok2871560
LJun 1 · 07:10J. Pelka206860S. Szostok331111113
LApr 9 · 13:55J. Pelka4791191172S. Szostok46116117113
WApr 9 · 07:55J. Pelka3911116113S. Szostok31751181
J. Pelka10
WOct 8 · 06:55J. Pelka1.831111113W. Urban1.835890LOct 8 · 05:40J. Pelka2.25111294102J. Pruszkowski1.577101111123LOct 8 · 04:10J. Pelka1.73111111592O. Sokolowski2.00139711113LOct 8 · 03:00J. Pelka2.756860K. Slawinski1.401111113WOct 5 · 17:05J. Pelka1.821211113J. Kaczmarek1.8810970LOct 5 · 15:30J. Pelka1.90114781G. Wichowski1.7591111113WOct 5 · 14:20J. Pelka2.1011714113R. Skotniczny1.658111261LOct 5 · 12:45J. Pelka1.655490Y. Fomin2.101111113WOct 5 · 11:30J. Pelka1.6711911123P. Polok2.108119101LOct 5 · 10:20Y. Fomin2.1012911163J. Pelka1.6510116141
S. Szostok10
WOct 8 · 07:20S. Szostok2.201215113K. Slawinski1.61101380LOct 8 · 06:05W. Urban2.1012611113S. Szostok1.671011761WOct 8 · 04:55J. Pruszkowski1.67491191S. Szostok2.1011118113WOct 8 · 03:25O. Sokolowski2.1081151282S. Szostok1.671141110113LOct 5 · 13:55S. Szostok1.576770P. Przewlocki2.251111113LOct 5 · 12:40S. Szostok1.67911114102J. Badura2.10114711123LOct 5 · 11:25S. Szostok2.0077111162K. Slawinski1.73111198113LOct 5 · 10:10O. Vincenec2.25118113113S. Szostok1.5771151192WOct 5 · 09:25S. Szostok2.108111110113J. Pruszkowski1.6711671262WOct 5 · 08:10J. Badura2.101110781S. Szostok1.6781211113
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