TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jerzy Pelka vs Wojciech Urban 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115118119––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:47 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeWojciech Urban to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJerzy Pelka above · Wojciech Urban below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Wojciech Urban at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Pelka 4–2 Wojciech Urban Wojciech Urban has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:4754.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Urban
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Pelka
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pelka 1366 vs Urban 1452
Urban
Wrong
both rated, 86 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pelka 20% vs Urban 100%
Urban
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pelka 30% vs Urban 80%
Urban
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pelka -3 · Urban +6
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Urban) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urban form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPelka 1.833 / Urban 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Urban)-0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13258764
Pelka1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Urban1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomePelka4wins
AwayUrban2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderPelka leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePelkan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayUrban50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pelka2Urban4n = 6Urban took 4 of 6
S2Pelka5Urban1n = 6Pelka took 5 of 6
S3Pelka4Urban2n = 6Pelka took 4 of 6
S4Pelka3Urban0n = 3Pelka took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricPelkaUrbanP − UBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match35.531.3+4.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPelkaUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime446 / 942 vs 835 / 175247.4%47.7%446 / 942 vs 835 / 1752Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanPelka 1.83/Urban 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 8 · 06:55J. Pelka331111113W. Urban225890
WSep 19 · 04:25J. Pelka4181111113W. Urban36117991
WSep 18 · 11:50J. Pelka3851111113W. Urban29117741
LSep 18 · 03:50J. Pelka219750W. Urban331111113
LMar 20 · 02:35J. Pelka4781181192W. Urban49118118113
WDec 18 · 05:00J. Pelka331111113W. Urban199640
J. Pelka10
LOct 8 · 05:40J. Pelka2.25111294102J. Pruszkowski1.577101111123LOct 8 · 04:10J. Pelka1.73111111592O. Sokolowski2.00139711113LOct 8 · 03:00J. Pelka2.756860K. Slawinski1.401111113WOct 5 · 17:05J. Pelka1.821211113J. Kaczmarek1.8810970LOct 5 · 15:30J. Pelka1.90114781G. Wichowski1.7591111113WOct 5 · 14:20J. Pelka2.1011714113R. Skotniczny1.658111261LOct 5 · 12:45J. Pelka1.655490Y. Fomin2.101111113WOct 5 · 11:30J. Pelka1.6711911123P. Polok2.108119101LOct 5 · 10:20Y. Fomin2.1012911163J. Pelka1.6510116141LOct 5 · 09:30G. Wichowski1.571311129113J. Pelka2.20159101192
W. Urban10
WOct 8 · 06:05W. Urban2.1012611113S. Szostok1.671011761WOct 8 · 04:30W. Urban2.7571311113K. Slawinski1.401111961WOct 8 · 03:50J. Pruszkowski1.737650W. Urban2.001111113WOct 7 · 17:05W. Urban1.531111113O. Sokolowski2.355770WOct 7 · 15:30W. Urban1.661211113R. Gajda2.1010420WOct 7 · 14:20W. Urban2.101011713123R. Niemiec1.661261111102LOct 7 · 12:45W. Urban1.778811101K. Adamus1.9511115123WOct 7 · 11:30W. Urban1.521411113O. Sokolowski2.3712580WOct 7 · 10:20K. Adamus2.3099140W. Urban1.551111163LOct 7 · 09:30R. Gajda1.91614118113W. Urban1.80111291182
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