TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Wojciech Urban vs Kacper Slawinski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111311119116––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:28 and never touched: 68.7% is still 68.7%
Graded at full timeKacper Slawinski to win
68.7%
68.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingWojciech Urban above · Kacper Slawinski below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 79 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Kacper Slawinski at 68.7%
79 points played in total.
H2H Wojciech Urban 1–6 Kacper Slawinski Wojciech Urban has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:2868.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 2.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Slawinski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Slawinski
Wrong
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1447 vs Slawinski 1503
Slawinski
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 80% vs Slawinski 40%
Urban
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 70% vs Slawinski 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban +4 · Slawinski +1
Urban
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Slawinski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slawinski form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 2.75 / Slawinski 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Slawinski)-2.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13258847
Urban2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 209 of 518
Down 0–1, comes back18% 52 of 283
Down 0–2, comes back7% 12 of 174
Slawinski1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 157 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it99% 76 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it81% 116 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeUrban1wins
AwaySlawinski6wins
2 of 7 to a deciderSlawinski leads 6–1, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrbann = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySlawinski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban2Slawinski5n = 7Slawinski took 5 of 7
S2Urban3Slawinski4n = 7Slawinski took 4 of 7
S3Urban3Slawinski4n = 7Slawinski took 4 of 7
S4Urban1Slawinski6n = 7Slawinski took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away571%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricUrbanSlawinskiU − SBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match37.743.4−5.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanSlawinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime833 / 1749 vs 621 / 99747.6%62.3%833 / 1749 vs 621 / 997Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SlawinskiUrban 2.75/Slawinski 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.7%
Slawinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 25 · 15:30W. Urban34971171K. Slawinski4211119113
LSep 23 · 09:00W. Urban4612119682K. Slawinski521091111113
LSep 23 · 04:30W. Urban388911101K. Slawinski4211118123
WSep 10 · 13:30W. Urban50811811123K. Slawinski45117116102
LSep 10 · 07:20W. Urban29811461K. Slawinski3911611113
LOct 15 · 17:30W. Urban32681171K. Slawinski4111118113
LSep 3 · 16:00W. Urban35129681K. Slawinski43101111113
W. Urban10
WOct 8 · 03:50J. Pruszkowski1.737650W. Urban2.001111113WOct 7 · 17:05W. Urban1.531111113O. Sokolowski2.355770WOct 7 · 15:30W. Urban1.661211113R. Gajda2.1010420WOct 7 · 14:20W. Urban2.101011713123R. Niemiec1.661261111102LOct 7 · 12:45W. Urban1.778811101K. Adamus1.9511115123WOct 7 · 11:30W. Urban1.521411113O. Sokolowski2.3712580WOct 7 · 10:20K. Adamus2.3099140W. Urban1.551111163LOct 7 · 09:30R. Gajda1.91614118113W. Urban1.80111291182LOct 7 · 08:45W. Urban1.607711111O. Sokolowski2.2011118133WOct 7 · 07:10W. Urban1.5711116113O. Sokolowski2.25831181
K. Slawinski10
WOct 8 · 03:00J. Pelka2.756860K. Slawinski1.401111113LOct 7 · 13:55K. Slawinski1.57611681P. Przewlocki2.2511911113WOct 7 · 12:40K. Slawinski1.61111211113L. Oracz2.20914761LOct 7 · 11:25K. Slawinski1.67951191J. Pruszkowski2.1011113113LOct 7 · 10:10O. Vincenec2.20141110123K. Slawinski1.6112812101WOct 7 · 09:25K. Slawinski1.301111113P. Slosarczyk3.409990WOct 7 · 07:45K. Slawinski1.5312911113O. Vincenec2.381011851WOct 7 · 06:30K. Slawinski1.57111494113L. Oracz2.25612111152WOct 7 · 05:15K. Slawinski1.67101111113J. Pruszkowski2.10127991WOct 7 · 04:10P. Przewlocki2.387611101K. Slawinski1.5311119123
Upcoming Matches
W. Urban
Oct 8 · 06:05W. Urban2.20S. Szostok1.61—Oct 8 · 06:55W. Urban1.83J. Pelka1.83—Oct 8 · 07:45W. Urban1.73O. Sokolowski2.00—Oct 8 · 09:00W. Urban2.75K. Slawinski1.40—Oct 8 · 10:10W. Urban1.73O. Sokolowski2.00—Oct 8 · 11:50W. Urban1.73J. Pruszkowski2.00—Oct 8 · 13:05W. Urban1.83J. Pelka1.83—Oct 8 · 14:40W. Urban2.20S. Szostok1.61—
K. Slawinski
Oct 8 · 07:20K. Slawinski1.61S. Szostok2.20—Oct 8 · 08:10K. Slawinski1.61J. Pruszkowski2.20—Oct 8 · 09:00K. Slawinski1.40W. Urban2.75—Oct 8 · 10:35K. Slawinski1.50J. Pelka2.50—Oct 8 · 11:25K. Slawinski1.50O. Sokolowski2.50—Oct 8 · 13:30K. Slawinski1.61S. Szostok2.20—Oct 8 · 14:20K. Slawinski1.61J. Pruszkowski2.20—
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