TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jerzy Pelka vs Sebastian Szostok 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1198111210911116
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:10 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Sebastian Szostok @ 1.80 · Lost
How it is goingJerzy Pelka above · Sebastian Szostok below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 98 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Sebastian Szostok at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Pelka 11–24 Sebastian Szostok Jerzy Pelka has won 11 of their 35 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Szostok beat Pelka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 11:1054.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Szostok
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-24 in 35
Szostok
Wrong
gap of 13 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pelka 1361 vs Szostok 1412
Szostok
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pelka 40% vs Szostok 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pelka 40% vs Szostok 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pelka -1 · Szostok -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Szostok) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPelka 1.909 / Szostok 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Szostok)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13258931
Pelka1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog46% won 87 of 190
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 51
Szostok1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 335 of 516
Up 2–0, closes it95% 131 of 138
Up 1–0, closes it80% 219 of 273
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePelka2wins
AwaySzostok8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePelka40%2 of 5
AwaySzostok100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pelka5Szostok5n = 10split evenly
S2Pelka6Szostok4n = 10Pelka took 6 of 10
S3Pelka2Szostok8n = 10Szostok took 8 of 10
S4Pelka4Szostok3n = 7Pelka took 4 of 7
S5Pelka0Szostok4n = 4Szostok took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPelkaSzostokP − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.540.7−2.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPelkaSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime443 / 940 vs 894 / 154847.1%57.8%443 / 940 vs 894 / 1548Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.140.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokPelka 1.91/Szostok 1.80
Miss
What we said
54%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Sebastian Szostok @ 1.80 · Lost
What happened
3–2
Pelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 8 · 08:35J. Pelka4411581192S. Szostok45711115113
LSep 18 · 09:00J. Pelka4313128101S. Szostok48151011123
WSep 18 · 04:30J. Pelka331111113S. Szostok236980
LAug 20 · 13:10J. Pelka4591151282S. Szostok471141110113
LAug 20 · 05:30J. Pelka326121041S. Szostok44111012113
LJul 25 · 13:55J. Pelka48111171182S. Szostok50613119113
LJul 25 · 07:55J. Pelka341161251S. Szostok4371114113
WJun 1 · 11:30J. Pelka391117113S. Szostok2871560
LJun 1 · 07:10J. Pelka206860S. Szostok331111113
LApr 9 · 13:55J. Pelka4791191172S. Szostok46116117113
J. Pelka10
WOct 8 · 13:05W. Urban1.839980J. Pelka1.831111113LOct 8 · 10:35J. Pelka2.50139121132K. Slawinski1.501111149113WOct 8 · 09:50J. Pruszkowski1.8091115652J. Pelka1.911131311113LOct 8 · 08:35J. Pelka2.2011581192S. Szostok1.61711115113WOct 8 · 06:55J. Pelka1.831111113W. Urban1.835890LOct 8 · 05:40J. Pelka2.25111294102J. Pruszkowski1.577101111123LOct 8 · 04:10J. Pelka1.73111111592O. Sokolowski2.00139711113LOct 8 · 03:00J. Pelka2.756860K. Slawinski1.401111113WOct 5 · 17:05J. Pelka1.821211113J. Kaczmarek1.8810970LOct 5 · 15:30J. Pelka1.90114781G. Wichowski1.7591111113
S. Szostok10
LOct 8 · 11:00J. Pruszkowski1.6191111113S. Szostok2.20116981LOct 8 · 09:25O. Sokolowski2.101012118113S. Szostok1.67121091172WOct 8 · 08:35J. Pelka2.2011581192S. Szostok1.61711115113WOct 8 · 07:20S. Szostok2.201215113K. Slawinski1.61101380LOct 8 · 06:05W. Urban2.1012611113S. Szostok1.671011761WOct 8 · 04:55J. Pruszkowski1.67491191S. Szostok2.1011118113WOct 8 · 03:25O. Sokolowski2.1081151282S. Szostok1.671141110113LOct 5 · 13:55S. Szostok1.576770P. Przewlocki2.251111113LOct 5 · 12:40S. Szostok1.67911114102J. Badura2.10114711123LOct 5 · 11:25S. Szostok2.0077111162K. Slawinski1.73111198113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.