TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Oliwier Sokolowski vs Sebastian Szostok 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121210119811117
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:24 and never touched: 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOliwier Sokolowski above · Sebastian Szostok below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 101 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Sebastian Szostok at 60.2%
101 points played in total.
H2H Oliwier Sokolowski 2–6 Sebastian Szostok Oliwier Sokolowski has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2460.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
clears by 0.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Szostok
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Szostok
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sokolowski 1314 vs Szostok 1441
Szostok
Wrong
both rated, 128 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sokolowski 40% vs Szostok 80%
Szostok
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sokolowski 30% vs Szostok 50%
Szostok
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sokolowski +1 · Szostok +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Szostok) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSokolowski 2.10 / Szostok 1.666
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Szostok)+0.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13259249
Sokolowski2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 135 of 356
Down 0–1, comes back21% 44 of 212
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 126
Szostok1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 335 of 516
Up 2–0, closes it95% 131 of 138
Up 1–0, closes it80% 219 of 273
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSokolowski2wins
AwaySzostok6wins
2 of 8 to a deciderSzostok leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSokolowski50%2 of 4
AwaySzostok100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sokolowski4Szostok4n = 8split evenly
S2Sokolowski5Szostok3n = 8Sokolowski took 5 of 8
S3Sokolowski1Szostok7n = 8Szostok took 7 of 8
S4Sokolowski3Szostok4n = 7Szostok took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricSokolowskiSzostokSokolowski − SzostokBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match39.042.0−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSokolowskiSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime280 / 647 vs 894 / 154643.3%57.8%280 / 647 vs 894 / 1546Avg sets wonper match1.82.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.340.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSokolowski 2.10/Szostok 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.2%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sokolowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LOct 8 · 03:25O. Sokolowski4481151282S. Szostok471141110113
LSep 20 · 23:10O. Sokolowski427119151S. Szostok4411511173
WSep 20 · 17:10O. Sokolowski4511712153S. Szostok3731110131
LJun 2 · 08:20O. Sokolowski361011871S. Szostok3812411113
WMay 30 · 16:20O. Sokolowski4411135153S. Szostok4381111131
LMay 30 · 06:45O. Sokolowski34117881S. Szostok4181111113
LApr 12 · 15:55O. Sokolowski2591150S. Szostok351113113
LApr 12 · 09:55O. Sokolowski4211114792S. Szostok51991111113
O. Sokolowski10
WOct 8 · 10:10W. Urban1.67761191O. Sokolowski2.1011114113WOct 8 · 07:45O. Sokolowski2.00111167113W. Urban1.7397111162LOct 8 · 06:30O. Sokolowski2.63118111392J. Pruszkowski1.44911915113LOct 8 · 05:15O. Sokolowski2.50412721K. Slawinski1.50111011113WOct 8 · 04:10J. Pelka1.73111111592O. Sokolowski2.00139711113LOct 8 · 03:25O. Sokolowski2.1081151282S. Szostok1.671141110113LOct 7 · 17:05W. Urban1.531111113O. Sokolowski2.355770LOct 7 · 15:55O. Sokolowski1.7791190O. Sokolowski1.951113113WOct 7 · 14:45R. Gajda1.8011115992O. Sokolowski1.90941111113LOct 7 · 13:30R. Niemiec1.52761111113O. Sokolowski2.3511117942
S. Szostok10
WOct 8 · 08:35J. Pelka2.2011581192S. Szostok1.61711115113WOct 8 · 07:20S. Szostok2.201215113K. Slawinski1.61101380LOct 8 · 06:05W. Urban2.1012611113S. Szostok1.671011761WOct 8 · 04:55J. Pruszkowski1.67491191S. Szostok2.1011118113WOct 8 · 03:25O. Sokolowski2.1081151282S. Szostok1.671141110113LOct 5 · 13:55S. Szostok1.576770P. Przewlocki2.251111113LOct 5 · 12:40S. Szostok1.67911114102J. Badura2.10114711123LOct 5 · 11:25S. Szostok2.0077111162K. Slawinski1.73111198113LOct 5 · 10:10O. Vincenec2.25118113113S. Szostok1.5771151192WOct 5 · 09:25S. Szostok2.108111110113J. Pruszkowski1.6711671262
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