TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Oliwier Sokolowski vs Wojciech Urban 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119117611711116
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:42 and never touched: 60.0% is still 60.0%
Graded at full timeWojciech Urban to win
60.0%
60.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOliwier Sokolowski above · Wojciech Urban below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 90 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Wojciech Urban at 60.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Oliwier Sokolowski 3–10 Wojciech Urban Oliwier Sokolowski has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 07:4260.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
clears by 2.1pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Urban
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-10 in 13
Urban
Wrong
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sokolowski 1298 vs Urban 1452
Urban
Wrong
both rated, 154 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sokolowski 20% vs Urban 80%
Urban
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sokolowski 30% vs Urban 80%
Urban
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sokolowski -2 · Urban -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Urban) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urban form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSokolowski 2.00 / Urban 1.727
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Urban)+2.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13259001
Sokolowski2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 135 of 356
Down 0–1, comes back21% 44 of 212
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 126
Urban1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 189 of 317
Up 2–0, closes it98% 84 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it76% 139 of 183
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSokolowski3wins
AwayUrban7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderUrban leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSokolowski66.7%2 of 3
AwayUrban85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sokolowski3Urban7n = 10Urban took 7 of 10
S2Sokolowski4Urban6n = 10Urban took 6 of 10
S3Sokolowski4Urban6n = 10Urban took 6 of 10
S4Sokolowski3Urban3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSokolowskiUrbanS − UBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.735.2−4.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSokolowskiUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime279 / 646 vs 835 / 175243.2%47.7%279 / 646 vs 835 / 1752Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanSokolowski 2.00/Urban 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sokolowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 17:05O. Sokolowski195770W. Urban331111113
WOct 7 · 08:45O. Sokolowski4311118133W. Urban367711111
WSep 3 · 08:20O. Sokolowski43101111113W. Urban31129371
LSep 3 · 02:20O. Sokolowski49118911102W. Urban43711112123
WAug 29 · 08:20O. Sokolowski331111113W. Urban236980
LAug 12 · 06:00O. Sokolowski163490W. Urban331111113
LJun 28 · 03:10O. Sokolowski26721161W. Urban3611113113
LJun 5 · 03:10O. Sokolowski23341151W. Urban3911116113
LJun 3 · 03:35O. Sokolowski389111351W. Urban4511815113
LMar 15 · 02:55O. Sokolowski176740W. Urban331111113
O. Sokolowski10
LOct 8 · 06:30O. Sokolowski2.63118111392J. Pruszkowski1.44911915113LOct 8 · 05:15O. Sokolowski2.50412721K. Slawinski1.50111011113WOct 8 · 04:10J. Pelka1.73111111592O. Sokolowski2.00139711113LOct 8 · 03:25O. Sokolowski2.1081151282S. Szostok1.671141110113LOct 7 · 17:05W. Urban1.531111113O. Sokolowski2.355770LOct 7 · 15:55O. Sokolowski1.7791190O. Sokolowski1.951113113WOct 7 · 14:45R. Gajda1.8011115992O. Sokolowski1.90941111113LOct 7 · 13:30R. Niemiec1.52761111113O. Sokolowski2.3511117942LOct 7 · 11:55K. Adamus1.501161111113O. Sokolowski2.4091161392WOct 7 · 11:05R. Gajda1.80971181O. Sokolowski1.9011116113
W. Urban10
LOct 8 · 09:00W. Urban2.751171171K. Slawinski1.4081113113LOct 8 · 06:55J. Pelka1.831111113W. Urban1.835890WOct 8 · 06:05W. Urban2.1012611113S. Szostok1.671011761WOct 8 · 04:30W. Urban2.7571311113K. Slawinski1.401111961WOct 8 · 03:50J. Pruszkowski1.737650W. Urban2.001111113WOct 7 · 17:05W. Urban1.531111113O. Sokolowski2.355770WOct 7 · 15:30W. Urban1.661211113R. Gajda2.1010420WOct 7 · 14:20W. Urban2.101011713123R. Niemiec1.661261111102LOct 7 · 12:45W. Urban1.778811101K. Adamus1.9511115123WOct 7 · 11:30W. Urban1.521411113O. Sokolowski2.3712580
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