TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Oskar Sokolowski vs Zbigniew Sobkow 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811611611––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:35 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Sobkow to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOskar Sokolowski above · Zbigniew Sobkow below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 53 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Zbigniew Sobkow at 64.5%
53 points played in total.
H2H Oskar Sokolowski 1–1 Zbigniew Sobkow Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:3564.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Sobkow
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sokolowski 1229 vs Sobkow 1284
Sobkow
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sokolowski 40% vs Sobkow 20%
Sokolowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sokolowski 40% vs Sobkow 20%
Sokolowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sokolowski +2 · Sobkow -4
Sobkow
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Sobkow) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobkow form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSokolowski 2.625 / Sobkow 1.444
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Sobkow)-4.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13264312
Sokolowski2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 83 of 281
Down 0–1, comes back15% 26 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 100
Sobkow1.44
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 37 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it67% 26 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSokolowski1wins
AwaySobkow1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricSokolowskiSobkowSokolowski − SobkowBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match34.541.0−6.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSokolowskiSobkowBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 434 vs 68 / 14833.2%46%144 / 434 vs 68 / 148Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SobkowSokolowski 2.63/Sobkow 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Sobkow · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sobkow won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 11 · 14:40O. Sokolowski528101112113Z. Sobkow48111291062
LSep 11 · 06:05O. Sokolowski1716100Z. Sobkow341111123
O. Sokolowski10
WOct 9 · 11:25O. Sokolowski2.005111112193M. Baron1.731113310172WOct 9 · 10:10L. Oracz1.5010311101O. Sokolowski2.5012115123LOct 9 · 09:25O. Sokolowski2.0071111742M. Jozefiak1.73115911113LOct 8 · 08:45M. Cesarz2.15111813113O. Sokolowski1.609161551LOct 8 · 07:35O. Sokolowski3.301112771K. Hetnar1.2771411113LOct 8 · 06:25A. Burkacki1.7711711113O. Sokolowski1.95511681WOct 8 · 05:10P. Kurek1.97911751O. Sokolowski1.7611911113LOct 8 · 03:35P. Gumulinski1.401110911113O. Sokolowski2.7561211682LOct 7 · 16:40R. Niemiec1.321211123O. Sokolowski3.00109100WOct 7 · 15:55O. Sokolowski1.7791190O. Sokolowski1.951113113
Z. Sobkow10
LOct 9 · 11:50L. Oracz1.4411118113Z. Sobkow2.63691151LOct 9 · 11:00Z. Sobkow2.10991181M. Jozefiak1.6711118113LOct 9 · 09:50Z. Sobkow1.6112591172J. Kaczmarek2.201011115113LOct 9 · 08:10Z. Sobkow1.83911991M. Baron1.8311311113WOct 9 · 06:30R. Idaczyk2.002830Z. Sobkow1.731111113WOct 9 · 05:40J. Kaczmarek2.0075120Z. Sobkow1.731111143LOct 9 · 04:55Z. Sobkow1.735670M. Jozefiak2.001111113LOct 9 · 03:50Z. Sobkow2.1010230L. Oracz1.671211113LSep 27 · 13:55A. Cichocki1.571111113Z. Sobkow2.257630LSep 27 · 13:05P. Polok1.53131112113Z. Sobkow2.381581061
Upcoming Matches
O. Sokolowski
Z. Sobkow
Oct 9 · 14:20Z. Sobkow1.67M. Baron2.10—Oct 10 · 03:00Z. Sobkow2.63W. Wojtaszczyk1.44—Oct 10 · 04:10Z. Sobkow2.63M. Lach1.44—Oct 10 · 05:40Z. Sobkow3.00J. Wieczerzak1.36—Oct 10 · 06:55Z. Sobkow1.44G. Sawicki2.63—Oct 10 · 08:35Z. Sobkow2.63S. Szostok1.44—Oct 10 · 09:50Z. Sobkow1.36I. Szymanski3.00—Oct 10 · 10:35Z. Sobkow2.63W. Wojtaszczyk1.44—Oct 10 · 12:15Z. Sobkow2.63S. Szostok1.44—Oct 10 · 13:05Z. Sobkow3.00J. Wieczerzak1.36—
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