TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Lukasz Oracz vs Oskar Sokolowski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10123111151012––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:03 and never touched: 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Oskar Sokolowski below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 74 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Lukasz Oracz at 71.6%
74 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 3–1 Oskar Sokolowski Oskar Sokolowski has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:0371.6%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
clears by 4.9pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1363 vs Sokolowski 1197
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 166 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 40% vs Sokolowski 20%
Oracz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 50% vs Sokolowski 30%
Oracz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -1 · Sokolowski -4
Sokolowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Oracz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sokolowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.50 / Sokolowski 2.50
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Oracz)+4.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13264278
Oracz1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 356 of 563
Up 2–0, closes it97% 201 of 208
Up 1–0, closes it81% 279 of 343
Sokolowski2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 83 of 281
Down 0–1, comes back15% 26 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeOracz3wins
AwaySokolowski1wins
Oracz leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz2Sokolowski2n = 4split evenly
S2Oracz3Sokolowski1n = 4Oracz took 3 of 4
S3Oracz3Sokolowski1n = 4Oracz took 3 of 4
S4Oracz2Sokolowski1n = 3Oracz took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricOraczSokolowskiO − SBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match38.534.0+4.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczSokolowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime876 / 1594 vs 142 / 43255%32.9%876 / 1594 vs 142 / 432Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.50/Sokolowski 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.6%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sokolowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 26 · 23:10L. Oracz33711961O. Sokolowski4211911113
WJul 26 · 20:45L. Oracz4411911133O. Sokolowski387119111
WJun 29 · 09:25L. Oracz4181111113O. Sokolowski34117881
WJun 29 · 03:25L. Oracz361114113O. Sokolowski2241260
L. Oracz10
LOct 9 · 09:00L. Oracz1.5371111772M. Baron2.38119811113WOct 9 · 07:45R. Idaczyk2.009650L. Oracz1.731111113WOct 9 · 06:55J. Kaczmarek2.251171161L. Oracz1.5713119113LOct 9 · 06:05L. Oracz1.5371060M. Jozefiak2.381112113LOct 9 · 04:30L. Oracz1.738790M. Baron2.001111113WOct 9 · 03:50Z. Sobkow2.1010230L. Oracz1.671211113WOct 7 · 14:20L. Oracz2.101111113J. Pruszkowski1.679890LOct 7 · 12:40K. Slawinski1.61111211113L. Oracz2.20914761LOct 7 · 11:50O. Vincenec1.7311125113L. Oracz2.006101171WOct 7 · 11:00L. Oracz1.30671111113P. Slosarczyk3.4011115452
O. Sokolowski10
LOct 9 · 09:25O. Sokolowski2.0071111742M. Jozefiak1.73115911113LOct 8 · 08:45M. Cesarz2.15111813113O. Sokolowski1.609161551LOct 8 · 07:35O. Sokolowski3.301112771K. Hetnar1.2771411113LOct 8 · 06:25A. Burkacki1.7711711113O. Sokolowski1.95511681WOct 8 · 05:10P. Kurek1.97911751O. Sokolowski1.7611911113LOct 8 · 03:35P. Gumulinski1.401110911113O. Sokolowski2.7561211682LOct 7 · 16:40R. Niemiec1.321211123O. Sokolowski3.00109100WOct 7 · 15:55O. Sokolowski1.7791190O. Sokolowski1.951113113LOct 7 · 13:55K. Adamus1.391111113O. Sokolowski2.809560WOct 7 · 13:10R. Gajda1.601211911102O. Sokolowski2.15145119123
Upcoming Matches
L. Oracz
O. Sokolowski
Oct 9 · 11:25O. Sokolowski2.00M. Baron1.73—Oct 9 · 12:40O. Sokolowski2.50Z. Sobkow1.50—Oct 9 · 13:55O. Sokolowski2.00J. Kaczmarek1.73—Oct 9 · 15:50O. Sokolowski3.00O. Jadach1.36—Oct 9 · 16:35O. Sokolowski1.83R. Adach1.83—Oct 9 · 18:10O. Sokolowski1.61M. Cesarz2.20—Oct 9 · 18:55O. Sokolowski2.75K. Juszczyk1.40—Oct 9 · 19:40O. Sokolowski2.25K. Schaniel1.57—
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