TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jacek Wieczerzak vs Pawel Polok 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181412711811611
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:39 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Wieczerzak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJacek Wieczerzak above · Pawel Polok below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 99 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Jacek Wieczerzak at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Wieczerzak 0–2 Pawel Polok Jacek Wieczerzak has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:3954.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Polok
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Wieczerzak 1483 vs Polok 1394
Wieczerzak
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wieczerzak 80% vs Polok 0%
Wieczerzak
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wieczerzak 80% vs Polok 30%
Wieczerzak
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wieczerzak +3 · Polok -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Wieczerzak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polok form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWieczerzak 1.833 / Polok 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Wieczerzak)-0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13275201
Wieczerzak1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Polok1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 05)
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeWieczerzak0wins
AwayPolok2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderPolok leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricWieczerzakPolokW − PBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match34.043.0−9.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWieczerzakPolokBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 303 vs 185 / 29554.1%62.7%164 / 303 vs 185 / 295Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WieczerzakWieczerzak 1.83/Polok 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Wieczerzak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Polok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 27 · 11:50J. Wieczerzak47119611102P. Polok50811118123
LSep 27 · 03:50J. Wieczerzak2112180P. Polok361411113
J. Wieczerzak10
WOct 10 · 14:40J. Wieczerzak1.831211113S. Szostok1.8310970WOct 10 · 13:05J. Wieczerzak1.301311113Z. Sobkow3.4011850WOct 10 · 11:50J. Wieczerzak1.1311117113I. Szymanski5.50961181LOct 10 · 10:10J. Wieczerzak1.837613111M. Lach1.83111111133WOct 10 · 09:00J. Wieczerzak2.251411113W. Wojtaszczyk1.5712740WOct 10 · 08:10J. Wieczerzak1.6711117123W. Wojtaszczyk2.107311101LOct 10 · 06:30M. Lach1.671111113J. Wieczerzak2.105590WOct 10 · 05:40Z. Sobkow3.0012750J. Wieczerzak1.361411113WOct 10 · 04:55J. Wieczerzak1.83119811113S. Szostok1.8331111562WOct 10 · 03:50J. Wieczerzak1.441111113G. Sawicki2.639680
P. Polok10
LOct 11 · 04:30P. Polok2.3813811972A. Cichocki1.531111711113LOct 5 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.7511119113P. Polok1.90471161LOct 5 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek1.3611139143P. Polok2.9181111121LOct 5 · 13:55Y. Fomin2.301111113P. Polok1.527860LOct 5 · 13:10G. Wichowski1.811111113P. Polok1.909470LOct 5 · 11:30J. Pelka1.6711911123P. Polok2.108119101WOct 5 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.85119881P. Polok1.8571111113WOct 5 · 09:55J. Kaczmarek3.107940P. Polok1.301111113WOct 5 · 07:55Y. Fomin2.158460P. Polok1.601111113LOct 5 · 07:10J. Pelka2.0011136163P. Polok1.7051111141
Upcoming Matches
J. Wieczerzak
Oct 11 · 05:40J. Wieczerzak1.40Z. Sobkow2.75—Oct 11 · 06:30J. Wieczerzak1.83M. Lach1.83—Oct 11 · 08:10J. Wieczerzak2.00A. Cichocki1.73—Oct 11 · 09:50J. Wieczerzak1.40Z. Sobkow2.75—Oct 11 · 11:00J. Wieczerzak—D. Swider——Oct 11 · 11:50J. Wieczerzak1.83P. Polok1.83—Oct 11 · 12:40J. Wieczerzak1.83M. Lach1.83—Oct 11 · 14:20J. Wieczerzak2.00A. Cichocki1.73—
P. Polok
Oct 11 · 06:05P. Polok1.57D. Swider2.25—Oct 11 · 06:55P. Polok1.44Z. Sobkow2.63—Oct 11 · 07:45P. Polok1.91M. Lach1.80—Oct 11 · 09:00P. Polok2.38A. Cichocki1.53—Oct 11 · 10:10P. Polok1.91M. Lach1.80—Oct 11 · 11:50P. Polok1.83J. Wieczerzak1.83—Oct 11 · 13:05P. Polok1.50Z. Sobkow2.50—Oct 11 · 14:40P. Polok1.61D. Swider2.20—
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