TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jacek Wieczerzak vs Zbigniew Sobkow 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117117––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:43 and never touched: 79.0% is still 79.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Wieczerzak to win
79.0%
79.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJacek Wieczerzak above · Zbigniew Sobkow below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-6
Point 53 set 3, 9-6 · our read held Jacek Wieczerzak at 79.0%
53 points drawn · the score is 3 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jacek Wieczerzak 12–5 Zbigniew Sobkow Zbigniew Sobkow has won 5 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:4379.0%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 1.0pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Wieczerzak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-5 in 17
Wieczerzak
Correct
gap of 7 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wieczerzak 1466 vs Sobkow 1259
Wieczerzak
Correct
both rated, 207 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wieczerzak 40% vs Sobkow 20%
Wieczerzak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wieczerzak 60% vs Sobkow 20%
Wieczerzak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wieczerzak +1 · Sobkow -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Wieczerzak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wieczerzak form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWieczerzak 1.25 / Sobkow 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Wieczerzak)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13275275
Wieczerzak1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 86 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it94% 50 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it78% 67 of 86
Sobkow3.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 21 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back17% 7 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWieczerzak9wins
AwaySobkow1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderWieczerzak leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWieczerzak100%8 of 8
AwaySobkown = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wieczerzak8Sobkow2n = 10Wieczerzak took 8 of 10
S2Wieczerzak7Sobkow3n = 10Wieczerzak took 7 of 10
S3Wieczerzak10Sobkow0n = 10Wieczerzak took 10 of 10
S4Wieczerzak2Sobkow1n = 3Wieczerzak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWieczerzakSobkowW − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.025.9+11.1per matchSweeps70+73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWieczerzakSobkowBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 308 vs 73 / 16553.9%44.2%166 / 308 vs 73 / 165Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WieczerzakWieczerzak 1.25/Sobkow 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79%
Wieczerzak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Wieczerzak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 11 · 05:40J. Wieczerzak361411113Z. Sobkow2212910
WOct 10 · 13:05J. Wieczerzak351311113Z. Sobkow2411850
WOct 10 · 05:40J. Wieczerzak361411113Z. Sobkow2412750
LSep 27 · 09:50J. Wieczerzak321041171Z. Sobkow4012116113
WSep 27 · 05:40J. Wieczerzak331111113Z. Sobkow176560
WSep 26 · 15:05J. Wieczerzak4211811123Z. Sobkow314116101
WSep 26 · 09:05J. Wieczerzak381111163Z. Sobkow3097140
WSep 13 · 10:35J. Wieczerzak51991111113Z. Sobkow3311115332
WSep 13 · 03:00J. Wieczerzak341211113Z. Sobkow2510870
WSep 6 · 13:55J. Wieczerzak331111113Z. Sobkow134810
J. Wieczerzak10
WOct 11 · 08:10J. Wieczerzak2.0011117113A. Cichocki1.73751131LOct 11 · 06:30M. Lach1.8318911113J. Wieczerzak1.831611681WOct 11 · 05:40Z. Sobkow2.7512910J. Wieczerzak1.401411113LOct 11 · 04:55J. Wieczerzak1.67114361D. Swider2.1061111113LOct 11 · 03:50J. Wieczerzak1.8311147862P. Polok1.838121111113WOct 10 · 14:40J. Wieczerzak1.831211113S. Szostok1.8310970WOct 10 · 13:05J. Wieczerzak1.301311113Z. Sobkow3.4011850WOct 10 · 11:50J. Wieczerzak1.1311117113I. Szymanski5.50961181LOct 10 · 10:10J. Wieczerzak1.837613111M. Lach1.83111111133WOct 10 · 09:00J. Wieczerzak2.251411113W. Wojtaszczyk1.5712740
Z. Sobkow10
LOct 11 · 10:35Z. Sobkow3.0062111182A. Cichocki1.36111167113LOct 11 · 08:35Z. Sobkow2.10981161D. Swider1.6711117113WOct 11 · 06:55Z. Sobkow2.3811115113P. Polok1.53991161LOct 11 · 05:40Z. Sobkow2.7512910J. Wieczerzak1.401411113LOct 11 · 04:10Z. Sobkow4.339470M. Lach1.201111113LOct 11 · 03:00Z. Sobkow2.7511811842A. Cichocki1.40311711113LOct 10 · 13:55M. Lach1.281111113Z. Sobkow3.506960LOct 10 · 13:05J. Wieczerzak1.301311113Z. Sobkow3.4011850LOct 10 · 12:15Z. Sobkow2.50711841S. Szostok1.5011811113LOct 10 · 10:35Z. Sobkow2.50111151052W. Wojtaszczyk1.50861112113
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