TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vadym Kucheriavyi vs Serhii Semenets 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8119111715115611
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:34 and never touched: 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeSerhii Semenets to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVadym Kucheriavyi above · Serhii Semenets below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 17-15
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 104 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Serhii Semenets at 61.3%
104 points played in total.
H2H Vadym Kucheriavyi 1–6 Serhii Semenets Vadym Kucheriavyi has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3461.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 2.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Semenets
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Semenets
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kucheriavyi 1228 vs Semenets 1275
Semenets
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kucheriavyi 60% vs Semenets 40%
Kucheriavyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kucheriavyi 70% vs Semenets 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kucheriavyi -1 · Semenets -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Semenets) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semenets form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKucheriavyi 2.25 / Semenets 1.571
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Semenets)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276643
Kucheriavyi2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Oct 03) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 9 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back25% 3 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Semenets1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 102 of 181
Up 2–0, closes it94% 48 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it76% 72 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKucheriavyi1wins
AwaySemenets6wins
1 of 7 to a deciderSemenets leads 6–1, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKucheriavyin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySemenets100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kucheriavyi2Semenets5n = 7Semenets took 5 of 7
S2Kucheriavyi2Semenets5n = 7Semenets took 5 of 7
S3Kucheriavyi1Semenets6n = 7Semenets took 6 of 7
S4Kucheriavyi1Semenets4n = 5Semenets took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away457%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricKucheriavyiSemenetsK − SBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match31.739.6−7.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKucheriavyiSemenetsBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 118 vs 419 / 83944.1%49.9%52 / 118 vs 419 / 839Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SemenetsKucheriavyi 2.25/Semenets 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.3%
Semenets · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Semenets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 13 · 06:05V. Kucheriavyi361061191S. Semenets4312119113
LSep 5 · 07:05V. Kucheriavyi311111361S. Semenets4313811113
LAug 22 · 11:00V. Kucheriavyi34118871S. Semenets3851111113
WAug 16 · 08:35V. Kucheriavyi551113911113S. Semenets4581511472
LNov 29 · 06:00V. Kucheriavyi25711521S. Semenets4111811113
LMay 31 · 06:50V. Kucheriavyi169520S. Semenets331111113
LFeb 8 · 13:20V. Kucheriavyi2561090S. Semenets341112113
V. Kucheriavyi10
LOct 3 · 11:35V. Kucheriavyi1.73891251P. Ostrovskyi2.00111110113WOct 3 · 09:35V. Varchenko1.8091111992V. Kucheriavyi1.91119611113LOct 3 · 08:35V. Kucheriavyi1.67891171V. Mykhalchenko2.1011116113WOct 3 · 07:35O. Stopin2.005880V. Kucheriavyi1.731111113WOct 3 · 06:05V. Kucheriavyi1.36581111113S. Osipov3.0011119682WSep 27 · 16:40V. Varchenko1.671111131062V. Kucheriavyi2.10871512113WSep 27 · 15:40V. Kucheriavyi1.91111173S. Osipov1.809660WSep 27 · 14:40V. Kucheriavyi2.5011117113V. Kondratenko1.50591151WSep 27 · 13:10V. Kucheriavyi1.731111711113O. Miklukha2.0041311552LSep 19 · 12:50V. Kucheriavyi1.6771040V. Varchenko2.101112113
S. Semenets10
LOct 7 · 12:05O. Mytsyk1.4011715113S. Semenets2.755111361WOct 7 · 10:35S. Semenets1.731111113S. Hovorunets2.004440WOct 7 · 08:35V. Stukalov1.911148101S. Semenets1.8081111123LOct 7 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.5311115113S. Semenets2.38681171LOct 7 · 05:33V. Kondratenko1.531111113S. Semenets2.387970WOct 6 · 17:40S. Hovorunets1.91119101172S. Semenets1.80311128113WOct 6 · 16:10S. Semenets3.25111185113S. Skhabitskiy1.3377111182WOct 6 · 14:10P. Ostrovskyi2.38116671S. Semenets1.5381111113WOct 6 · 12:10V. Mukhin1.50164121182S. Semenets2.501811105113WOct 6 · 11:10V. Stukalov1.91111110792S. Semenets1.80941211113
Upcoming Matches
V. Kucheriavyi
S. Semenets
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.