TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Mytsyk vs Serhii Semenets 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1157111513116––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:04 and never touched: 68.7% is still 68.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Mytsyk to win
68.7%
68.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Mytsyk above · Serhii Semenets below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 79 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Oleksandr Mytsyk at 68.7%
79 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Mytsyk 6–2 Serhii Semenets Serhii Semenets has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0468.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 2.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Mytsyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Mytsyk
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mytsyk 1358 vs Semenets 1285
Mytsyk
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mytsyk 40% vs Semenets 60%
Semenets
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mytsyk 40% vs Semenets 80%
Semenets
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mytsyk -2 · Semenets +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Mytsyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semenets form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMytsyk 1.40 / Semenets 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Mytsyk)-2.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13257771
Mytsyk1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 158 of 285
Up 2–0, closes it88% 71 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it78% 114 of 146
Semenets2.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 54 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back18% 14 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMytsyk6wins
AwaySemenets2wins
4 of 8 to a deciderMytsyk leads 6–2, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMytsyk75%3 of 4
AwaySemenets25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mytsyk4Semenets4n = 8split evenly
S2Mytsyk7Semenets1n = 8Mytsyk took 7 of 8
S3Mytsyk4Semenets4n = 8split evenly
S4Mytsyk5Semenets2n = 7Mytsyk took 5 of 7
S5Mytsyk2Semenets2n = 4split evenly
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricMytsykSemenetsM − SBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match43.536.5+7.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMytsykSemenetsBasisWin rate · lifetime531 / 1072 vs 421 / 84349.5%49.9%531 / 1072 vs 421 / 843Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MytsykMytsyk 1.40/Semenets 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.7%
Mytsyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mytsyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 20 · 12:05O. Mytsyk48571411113S. Semenets48111112682
WSep 18 · 12:05O. Mytsyk331111113S. Semenets238780
WSep 9 · 06:05O. Mytsyk42311116113S. Semenets3811381152
LSep 7 · 09:20O. Mytsyk47111196102S. Semenets46841111123
LAug 24 · 12:05O. Mytsyk528111211102S. Semenets46116143123
WAug 8 · 11:30O. Mytsyk4111118113S. Semenets32871161
WAug 6 · 06:30O. Mytsyk4311129113S. Semenets348101151
WNov 11 · 12:30O. Mytsyk4291111113S. Semenets25115451
O. Mytsyk10
LOct 7 · 10:05V. Kondratenko2.251111108133O. Mytsyk1.57931211112LOct 7 · 08:05V. Mukhin3.001111133O. Mytsyk1.3657110WOct 7 · 07:05O. Mytsyk1.5381111133S. Hovorunets2.381166111WOct 7 · 06:05V. Stukalov3.4073121382O. Mytsyk1.3011111011113LOct 5 · 12:50V. Melnykov2.25118911113O. Mytsyk1.5791111962LOct 5 · 11:20O. Mytsyk2.6311591172M. Stetsenko1.44911117113WOct 5 · 09:20O. Lipeiko1.833820O. Mytsyk1.831111113WOct 5 · 07:20S. Skhabitskiy2.109490O. Mytsyk1.671111113LOct 5 · 06:20O. Ovsiienko1.83136114123O. Mytsyk1.831111611102LOct 4 · 18:30O. Mytsyk2.509260M. Stetsenko1.501111113
S. Semenets10
WOct 7 · 10:35S. Semenets1.731111113S. Hovorunets2.004440WOct 7 · 08:35V. Stukalov1.911148101S. Semenets1.8081111123LOct 7 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.5311115113S. Semenets2.38681171LOct 7 · 05:33V. Kondratenko1.531111113S. Semenets2.387970WOct 6 · 17:40S. Hovorunets1.91119101172S. Semenets1.80311128113WOct 6 · 16:10S. Semenets3.25111185113S. Skhabitskiy1.3377111182WOct 6 · 14:10P. Ostrovskyi2.38116671S. Semenets1.5381111113WOct 6 · 12:10V. Mukhin1.50164121182S. Semenets2.501811105113WOct 6 · 11:10V. Stukalov1.91111110792S. Semenets1.80941211113WOct 2 · 12:05S. Semenets1.83521111113P. Ostrovskyi1.8311119562
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