TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Semenets vs Serhii Hovorunets 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114114114––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:20 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Semenets to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Serhii Semenets @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingSerhii Semenets above · Serhii Hovorunets below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 45 set 3, 11-4 · our read held Serhii Semenets at 54.0%
45 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Semenets 47–33 Serhii Hovorunets Serhii Hovorunets has won 33 of their 80 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 09:2054.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Semenets
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
47-33 in 80
Semenets
Correct
gap of 14 in 80, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semenets 1268 vs Hovorunets 1329
Hovorunets
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semenets 60% vs Hovorunets 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semenets 70% vs Hovorunets 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Semenets +1 · Hovorunets +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Semenets) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemenets 1.727 / Hovorunets 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Semenets)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13257734
Semenets1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 101 of 182
Up 2–0, closes it94% 48 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it76% 72 of 95
Hovorunets2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog40% won 36 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSemenets7wins
AwayHovorunets3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSemenets leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemenets80%4 of 5
AwayHovorunets40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semenets5Hovorunets5n = 10split evenly
S2Semenets8Hovorunets2n = 10Semenets took 8 of 10
S3Semenets7Hovorunets3n = 10Semenets took 7 of 10
S4Semenets2Hovorunets5n = 7Hovorunets took 5 of 7
S5Semenets3Hovorunets1n = 4Semenets took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSemenetsHovorunetsS − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.136.2+3.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemenetsHovorunetsBasisWin rate · lifetime420 / 842 vs 234 / 47949.9%48.9%420 / 842 vs 234 / 479Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SemenetsSemenets 1.73/Hovorunets 2.00
Hit
What we said
54%
Semenets · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Serhii Semenets @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
3–0
Semenets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 17:40S. Semenets45311128113S. Hovorunets48119101172
LSep 30 · 10:35S. Semenets377111091S. Hovorunets3911512113
WSep 29 · 17:40S. Semenets3851111113S. Hovorunets35119781
WSep 23 · 10:05S. Semenets47146115113S. Hovorunets42121151132
LSep 22 · 13:40S. Semenets4611971182S. Hovorunets50811119113
WSep 16 · 12:50S. Semenets45911113113S. Hovorunets4111591152
WSep 15 · 17:40S. Semenets331111113S. Hovorunets206860
WSep 9 · 07:35S. Semenets431121113S. Hovorunets3281950
WSep 8 · 19:00S. Semenets341211113S. Hovorunets1610420
LAug 18 · 06:28S. Semenets33911671S. Hovorunets3911611113
S. Semenets10
WOct 7 · 08:35V. Stukalov1.911148101S. Semenets1.8081111123LOct 7 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.5311115113S. Semenets2.38681171LOct 7 · 05:33V. Kondratenko1.531111113S. Semenets2.387970WOct 6 · 17:40S. Hovorunets1.91119101172S. Semenets1.80311128113WOct 6 · 16:10S. Semenets3.25111185113S. Skhabitskiy1.3377111182WOct 6 · 14:10P. Ostrovskyi2.38116671S. Semenets1.5381111113WOct 6 · 12:10V. Mukhin1.50164121182S. Semenets2.501811105113WOct 6 · 11:10V. Stukalov1.91111110792S. Semenets1.80941211113WOct 2 · 12:05S. Semenets1.83521111113P. Ostrovskyi1.8311119562LOct 2 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.91111187113S. Semenets1.8054111152
S. Hovorunets10
WOct 7 · 09:05V. Kondratenko1.7341311992S. Hovorunets2.001111611113LOct 7 · 07:05O. Mytsyk1.5381111133S. Hovorunets2.381166111LOct 6 · 17:40S. Hovorunets1.91119101172S. Semenets1.80311128113WOct 6 · 15:40V. Stukalov2.75113111482S. Hovorunets1.40211916113WOct 6 · 13:40V. Mukhin1.57111171192S. Hovorunets2.25513113113WOct 6 · 12:40S. Hovorunets3.2511811113S. Skhabitskiy1.33411881WOct 6 · 11:40P. Ostrovskyi2.2571070S. Hovorunets1.571112113WSep 30 · 11:35V. Stukalov3.0077111132S. Hovorunets1.36111198113WSep 30 · 10:35S. Semenets1.737111091S. Hovorunets2.0011512113WSep 30 · 09:05O. Miklukha3.25641171S. Hovorunets1.3311116113
Upcoming Matches
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