TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Stopin vs Vadym Kucheriavyi 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611511811––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:03 and never touched: 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeVadym Kucheriavyi to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Stopin above · Vadym Kucheriavyi below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 52 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Vadym Kucheriavyi at 62.9%
52 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Stopin 2–4 Vadym Kucheriavyi Oleh Stopin has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:0362.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 6.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kucheriavyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Kucheriavyi
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stopin 1257 vs Kucheriavyi 1219
Stopin
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stopin 100% vs Kucheriavyi 40%
Stopin
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stopin 90% vs Kucheriavyi 70%
Stopin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stopin +9 · Kucheriavyi -2
Stopin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Kucheriavyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kucheriavyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStopin 2.625 / Kucheriavyi 1.444
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Kucheriavyi)-6.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276470
Stopin2.63
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 9
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog27% won 16 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back19% 6 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Kucheriavyi1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite45% won 29 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it64% 16 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeStopin2wins
AwayKucheriavyi4wins
3 of 6 to a deciderKucheriavyi leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStopin40%2 of 5
AwayKucheriavyin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stopin5Kucheriavyi1n = 6Stopin took 5 of 6
S2Stopin2Kucheriavyi4n = 6Kucheriavyi took 4 of 6
S3Stopin2Kucheriavyi4n = 6Kucheriavyi took 4 of 6
S4Stopin1Kucheriavyi3n = 4Kucheriavyi took 3 of 4
S5Stopin1Kucheriavyi2n = 3Kucheriavyi took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricStopinKucheriavyiS − KBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match37.840.2−2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStopinKucheriavyiBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 280 vs 52 / 11955%43.7%154 / 280 vs 52 / 119Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KucheriavyiStopin 2.63/Kucheriavyi 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Kucheriavyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kucheriavyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LOct 3 · 07:35O. Stopin215880V. Kucheriavyi331111113
WSep 19 · 06:50O. Stopin341211113V. Kucheriavyi2410680
WSep 5 · 06:05O. Stopin581181216113V. Kucheriavyi53911101852
LAug 16 · 07:35O. Stopin4511951192V. Kucheriavyi46611117113
LJul 26 · 13:10O. Stopin27115651V. Kucheriavyi3851111113
LJun 27 · 07:00O. Stopin4211116862V. Kucheriavyi47951111113
O. Stopin10
WOct 11 · 11:10O. Stopin2.75511611113K. Klymenko1.4011411442WOct 7 · 18:30O. Stopin1.571111113O. Miklukha2.256980WOct 7 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko3.509980O. Stopin1.281111113WOct 7 · 15:30O. Stopin1.251211113O. Efimov3.7510470WOct 7 · 14:30D. Kunchurov4.33981171O. Stopin1.2011117113WOct 7 · 13:00O. Stopin1.2511911113V. Mykhalchenko3.75911931WOct 3 · 11:05V. Varchenko1.73621191O. Stopin2.0011117113WOct 3 · 10:05O. Stopin1.731211411113S. Osipov2.0014411442WOct 3 · 09:05O. Stopin2.3861113113P. Ostrovskyi1.531151161LOct 3 · 07:35O. Stopin2.005880V. Kucheriavyi1.731111113
V. Kucheriavyi10
LOct 11 · 11:40V. Kucheriavyi2.2589171162S. Semenets1.571111155113LOct 3 · 11:35V. Kucheriavyi1.73891251P. Ostrovskyi2.00111110113WOct 3 · 09:35V. Varchenko1.8091111992V. Kucheriavyi1.91119611113LOct 3 · 08:35V. Kucheriavyi1.67891171V. Mykhalchenko2.1011116113WOct 3 · 07:35O. Stopin2.005880V. Kucheriavyi1.731111113WOct 3 · 06:05V. Kucheriavyi1.36581111113S. Osipov3.0011119682WSep 27 · 16:40V. Varchenko1.671111131062V. Kucheriavyi2.10871512113WSep 27 · 15:40V. Kucheriavyi1.91111173S. Osipov1.809660WSep 27 · 14:40V. Kucheriavyi2.5011117113V. Kondratenko1.50591151WSep 27 · 13:10V. Kucheriavyi1.731111711113O. Miklukha2.0041311552
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