TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ales Cizek vs Kamil Kleprlik 3-2 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 54 - H4 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12101614711611119
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:43 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeKamil Kleprlik to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Cizek above · Kamil Kleprlik below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 16-14
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 107 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Kamil Kleprlik at 54.9%
107 points played in total.
H2H Ales Cizek 4–5 Kamil Kleprlik Ales Cizek has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:4354.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kleprlik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1498 vs Kleprlik 1625
Kleprlik
Wrong
both rated, 127 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 40% vs Kleprlik 100%
Kleprlik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 40% vs Kleprlik 70%
Kleprlik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek -1 · Kleprlik +5
Kleprlik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Kleprlik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kleprlik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 2.00 / Kleprlik 1.727
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Kleprlik)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13273925
Cizek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 74 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back18% 17 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 49
Kleprlik1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 55 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it73% 38 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeCizek4wins
AwayKleprlik5wins
3 of 9 to a deciderKleprlik leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCizek75%3 of 4
AwayKleprlik80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek4Kleprlik5n = 9Kleprlik took 5 of 9
S2Cizek5Kleprlik4n = 9Cizek took 5 of 9
S3Cizek3Kleprlik6n = 9Kleprlik took 6 of 9
S4Cizek2Kleprlik4n = 6Kleprlik took 4 of 6
S5Cizek2Kleprlik1n = 3Cizek took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricCizekKleprlikC − KBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match38.439.4−1.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekKleprlikBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 515 vs 279 / 56247.6%49.6%245 / 515 vs 279 / 562Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KleprlikCizek 2.00/Kleprlik 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Kleprlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 5 · 20:58A. Cizek4071111113K. Kleprlik32118581
LSep 5 · 19:45A. Cizek218670K. Kleprlik331111113
WJul 17 · 14:45A. Cizek551114118113K. Kleprlik49612131172
LJun 6 · 13:45A. Cizek29511671K. Kleprlik4011711113
LJun 5 · 18:15A. Cizek34119681K. Kleprlik4071111113
WMay 1 · 16:45A. Cizek351311113K. Kleprlik2611690
LMay 1 · 13:40A. Cizek50614911102K. Kleprlik511112115123
WApr 25 · 15:45A. Cizek5611101112123K. Kleprlik50512914102
LMar 1 · 10:45A. Cizek2610790K. Kleprlik341211113
A. Cizek10
WOct 10 · 20:44A. Cizek1.83911118113A. Kanak1.8311591192LOct 10 · 18:45A. Cizek1.6769100D. Vitasek2.101111123WOct 10 · 17:45A. Cizek2.201111113A. Kanak1.619760WOct 4 · 20:40D. Branny1.73411661A. Cizek2.0011711113LOct 4 · 19:40I. Heuman1.738111011113A. Cizek2.0011812992LOct 4 · 19:10D. Branny1.571113113A. Cizek2.2571170LOct 4 · 18:10A. Cizek1.7398121182R. Solle2.001111109113LOct 3 · 16:50A. Cizek2.603111061R. Sedlacek1.4411912113LOct 3 · 16:10M. Raska2.101111810113A. Cizek1.6756111282WOct 3 · 15:10A. Cizek2.101111113R. Sedlacek1.676430
K. Kleprlik10
LOct 10 · 21:14K. Kleprlik1.619712111D. Vitasek2.20111110133WOct 10 · 19:15A. Kanak2.1076180K. Kleprlik1.671111203WOct 10 · 18:15K. Kleprlik1.611111163D. Vitasek2.2099140WOct 10 · 17:10M. Macurak1.736811101K. Kleprlik2.0011112123WOct 10 · 15:40J. Krupnik3.251179101K. Kleprlik1.3331111123WOct 10 · 15:10D. Velky Jr2.504860K. Kleprlik1.501111113LOct 10 · 14:10K. Kleprlik1.83911461M. Macurak1.8311811113LOct 9 · 21:10K. Kleprlik1.61891181D. Vitasek2.2011118113WOct 9 · 19:40K. Kleprlik1.571291112113A. Kanak2.25101151492LOct 9 · 18:40K. Kleprlik1.83811101142I. Heuman1.83119127113
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