TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ales Cizek vs Daniel Vitasek 0-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 54 - H4 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6119111012––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:38 and never touched: 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeAles Cizek to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Cizek above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 59 set 3, 10-12 · our read held Ales Cizek at 55.4%
59 points played in total.
H2H Ales Cizek 9–12 Daniel Vitasek Ales Cizek has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:3855.4%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.6pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cizek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-12 in 21
Vitasek
Correct
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1511 vs Vitasek 1538
Vitasek
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 40% vs Vitasek 20%
Cizek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 50% vs Vitasek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek +2 · Vitasek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Cizek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 1.666 / Vitasek 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Cizek)-4.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13273942
Cizek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 43 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it87% 32 of 37
Vitasek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 96 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back22% 24 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCizek6wins
AwayVitasek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCizek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCizek100%5 of 5
AwayVitasek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek5Vitasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Cizek4Vitasek6n = 10Vitasek took 6 of 10
S3Cizek8Vitasek2n = 10Cizek took 8 of 10
S4Cizek5Vitasek4n = 9Cizek took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCizekVitasekC − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.339.0+2.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 514 vs 321 / 67747.7%47.4%245 / 514 vs 321 / 677Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CizekCizek 1.67/Vitasek 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.4%
Cizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vitasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 20:10A. Cizek351311113D. Vitasek2311660
WAug 12 · 17:45A. Cizek48911116113D. Vitasek4711971192
LAug 3 · 17:40A. Cizek4999111192D. Vitasek46111176113
WJul 24 · 20:10A. Cizek4111811113D. Vitasek30811561
WJul 7 · 18:10A. Cizek4813915113D. Vitasek4311111381
LJul 3 · 20:40A. Cizek398111191D. Vitasek4111136113
LJul 3 · 17:40A. Cizek29661161D. Vitasek4011117113
LJun 20 · 13:45A. Cizek36813691D. Vitasek44111111113
WJun 17 · 20:45A. Cizek4312713113D. Vitasek3510111131
WJun 17 · 18:40A. Cizek45121210113D. Vitasek4110101291
A. Cizek10
WOct 10 · 17:45A. Cizek2.201111113A. Kanak1.619760WOct 4 · 20:40D. Branny1.73411661A. Cizek2.0011711113LOct 4 · 19:40I. Heuman1.738111011113A. Cizek2.0011812992LOct 4 · 19:10D. Branny1.571113113A. Cizek2.2571170LOct 4 · 18:10A. Cizek1.7398121182R. Solle2.001111109113LOct 3 · 16:50A. Cizek2.603111061R. Sedlacek1.4411912113LOct 3 · 16:10M. Raska2.101111810113A. Cizek1.6756111282WOct 3 · 15:10A. Cizek2.101111113R. Sedlacek1.676430WOct 3 · 13:40M. Moravec1.5791111582A. Cizek2.25117411113WSep 29 · 13:18A. Cizek1.831111113D. Pawlik1.837560
D. Vitasek10
LOct 10 · 18:15K. Kleprlik1.611111163D. Vitasek2.2099140LOct 10 · 16:45L. Dzida1.8811111110123D. Vitasek1.82139412102WOct 10 · 16:15E. Precek1.83761151D. Vitasek1.8311117113LOct 10 · 15:15D. Vitasek1.611139111L. Dzida2.2081111133LOct 10 · 13:45A. Kanak1.7311811153D. Vitasek2.007113131WOct 9 · 21:10K. Kleprlik1.61891181D. Vitasek2.2011118113WOct 9 · 20:10I. Heuman1.674101181D. Vitasek2.1011125113WOct 9 · 19:10D. Vitasek2.10311119113A. Kanak1.6711971192LOct 9 · 17:40K. Kleprlik1.73121011113D. Vitasek2.001012881WOct 7 · 21:15D. Vitasek1.4411117113D. Branny2.63691171
Upcoming Matches
A. Cizek
Nothing scheduled
D. Vitasek
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