TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ales Cizek vs Adam Kanak 3-0 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 54 - H4 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117116––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:43 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeAdam Kanak to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Cizek above · Adam Kanak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 55 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Adam Kanak at 57.7%
55 points played in total.
H2H Ales Cizek 1–3 Adam Kanak Ales Cizek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:4357.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kanak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Kanak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1521 vs Kanak 1541
Kanak
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 20% vs Kanak 80%
Kanak
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 50% vs Kanak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek +1 · Kanak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Kanak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kanak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 2.20 / Kanak 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Kanak)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13274209
Cizek2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 04)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 74 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back18% 17 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 49
Kanak1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 44 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it72% 26 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeCizek1wins
AwayKanak3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderKanak leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek2Kanak2n = 4split evenly
S2Cizek0Kanak4n = 4Kanak took 4 of 4
S3Cizek2Kanak2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricCizekKanakC − KBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match35.539.5−4.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekKanakBasisWin rate · lifetime244 / 513 vs 93 / 17447.6%53.5%244 / 513 vs 93 / 174Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KanakCizek 2.20/Kanak 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Kanak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 25 · 21:10A. Cizek4211911113A. Kanak31811391
LSep 25 · 18:40A. Cizek351015100A. Kanak411217123
LSep 16 · 19:15A. Cizek42136112102A. Kanak531111811123
LSep 7 · 19:40A. Cizek239860A. Kanak331111113
A. Cizek10
WOct 4 · 20:40D. Branny1.73411661A. Cizek2.0011711113LOct 4 · 19:40I. Heuman1.738111011113A. Cizek2.0011812992LOct 4 · 19:10D. Branny1.571113113A. Cizek2.2571170LOct 4 · 18:10A. Cizek1.7398121182R. Solle2.001111109113LOct 3 · 16:50A. Cizek2.603111061R. Sedlacek1.4411912113LOct 3 · 16:10M. Raska2.101111810113A. Cizek1.6756111282WOct 3 · 15:10A. Cizek2.101111113R. Sedlacek1.676430WOct 3 · 13:40M. Moravec1.5791111582A. Cizek2.25117411113WSep 29 · 13:18A. Cizek1.831111113D. Pawlik1.837560WSep 29 · 12:10D. Pawlik2.003116111A. Cizek1.7311611133
A. Kanak10
WOct 10 · 17:14E. Precek1.6711131113122A. Kanak2.107151311143WOct 10 · 15:45A. Kanak1.7311811113L. Dzida2.00811581LOct 10 · 14:45A. Kanak1.83136481E. Precek1.83111111113WOct 10 · 13:45A. Kanak1.7311811153D. Vitasek2.007113131WOct 9 · 20:40I. Heuman1.57119521A. Kanak2.2561111113LOct 9 · 19:40K. Kleprlik1.571291112113A. Kanak2.25101151492LOct 9 · 19:10D. Vitasek2.10311119113A. Kanak1.6711971192LOct 9 · 18:10A. Kanak2.20771191I. Heuman1.6111118113WOct 8 · 16:50R. Sedlacek1.73411113122A. Kanak2.001111911143WOct 8 · 15:45A. Kanak2.00111114113T. Krenek1.73991641
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