TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Krupnik vs Kamil Kleprlik 1-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 20 - Czech 9 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1137119111012––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:35 and never touched: 71.7% is still 71.7%
Graded at full timeKamil Kleprlik to win
71.7%
71.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Kamil Kleprlik below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 74 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Kamil Kleprlik at 71.7%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 13–17 Kamil Kleprlik Jan Krupnik has won 13 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:3571.7%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 3.3pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kleprlik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-17 in 30
Kleprlik
Correct
gap of 4 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1598 vs Kleprlik 1575
Krupnik
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 20% vs Kleprlik 40%
Kleprlik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 50% vs Kleprlik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik -2 · Kleprlik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Kleprlik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kleprlik form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 3.25 / Kleprlik 1.333
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Kleprlik)-3.3pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13274116
Krupnik3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 104 of 215
Down 0–1, comes back30% 29 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Kleprlik1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 55 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it73% 38 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik3wins
AwayKleprlik7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKleprlik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik50%2 of 4
AwayKleprlik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik4Kleprlik6n = 10Kleprlik took 6 of 10
S2Krupnik5Kleprlik5n = 10split evenly
S3Krupnik2Kleprlik8n = 10Kleprlik took 8 of 10
S4Krupnik4Kleprlik3n = 7Krupnik took 4 of 7
S5Krupnik1Kleprlik3n = 4Kleprlik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikKleprlikKrupnik − KleprlikBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.539.8−1.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikKleprlikBasisWin rate · lifetime499 / 973 vs 275 / 55851.3%49.3%499 / 973 vs 275 / 558Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KleprlikKrupnik 3.25/Kleprlik 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.7%
Kleprlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kleprlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 3 · 16:46J. Krupnik175570K. Kleprlik331111113
LOct 3 · 15:15J. Krupnik47812125102K. Kleprlik5411101011123
LAug 26 · 15:40J. Krupnik4671191182K. Kleprlik45117115113
LAug 16 · 16:15J. Krupnik2867150K. Kleprlik391111173
WAug 1 · 20:43J. Krupnik521011911113K. Kleprlik4412711862
LAug 1 · 19:15J. Krupnik228860K. Kleprlik331111113
WJul 26 · 06:40J. Krupnik3711114113K. Kleprlik31581171
WJul 22 · 16:10J. Krupnik4711169113K. Kleprlik346141131
LJul 16 · 16:50J. Krupnik43111111101K. Kleprlik4351313123
LJul 16 · 14:45J. Krupnik4611711892K. Kleprlik42511411113
J. Krupnik10
LOct 10 · 14:40J. Krupnik2.38114111192M. Macurak1.53611137113LOct 10 · 13:40J. Krupnik1.73991191D. Velky Jr2.0011117113WOct 9 · 16:44F. Chaloupka1.6791161172J. Krupnik2.10116118113LOct 9 · 16:15J. Krupnik2.2591080M. Macurak1.571112113LOct 9 · 14:45B. Moravec1.441111113J. Krupnik2.632640LOct 9 · 14:15F. Chaloupka1.611151211113J. Krupnik2.2041114782WOct 8 · 13:15J. Krupnik1.83111156143T. Krenek1.83891111122WOct 8 · 11:45R. Sedlacek1.91111179102J. Krupnik1.80771111123WOct 8 · 11:15T. Krenek1.8341360J. Krupnik1.831115113WOct 8 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.671191011113M. Moravec2.1071112582
K. Kleprlik10
WOct 10 · 15:10D. Velky Jr2.504860K. Kleprlik1.501111113LOct 10 · 14:10K. Kleprlik1.83911461M. Macurak1.8311811113LOct 9 · 21:10K. Kleprlik1.61891181D. Vitasek2.2011118113WOct 9 · 19:40K. Kleprlik1.571291112113A. Kanak2.25101151492LOct 9 · 18:40K. Kleprlik1.83811101142I. Heuman1.83119127113WOct 9 · 17:40K. Kleprlik1.73121011113D. Vitasek2.001012881WOct 5 · 16:39L. Dzida1.801191091K. Kleprlik1.9191112113LOct 5 · 16:10K. Kleprlik1.8081191152L. Dzida1.91119118113LOct 5 · 14:40F. Chaloupka1.8012115163K. Kleprlik1.9110911141LOct 5 · 14:10D. Skulina1.5311117123K. Kleprlik2.386811101
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