TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ivan Heuman vs Jan Krupnik 1-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 21 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113118311911––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Heuman above · Jan Krupnik below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Jan Krupnik at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Heuman 13–17 Jan Krupnik Ivan Heuman has won 13 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:5654.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Krupnik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-17 in 30
Krupnik
Correct
gap of 4 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heuman 1614 vs Krupnik 1613
Heuman
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heuman 60% vs Krupnik 20%
Heuman
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heuman 60% vs Krupnik 30%
Heuman
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Heuman +1 · Krupnik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Krupnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeuman 2.10 / Krupnik 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Krupnik)-6.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13273964
Heuman2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 57 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back28% 16 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Krupnik1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 136 of 254
Up 2–0, closes it92% 61 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it73% 95 of 131
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeuman3wins
AwayKrupnik7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKrupnik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeuman50%2 of 4
AwayKrupnik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heuman4Krupnik6n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S2Heuman5Krupnik5n = 10split evenly
S3Heuman4Krupnik6n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S4Heuman3Krupnik7n = 10Krupnik took 7 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeumanKrupnikH − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.141.4−2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeumanKrupnikBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 468 vs 501 / 97850%51.2%234 / 468 vs 501 / 978Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikHeuman 2.10/Krupnik 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 10 · 19:10I. Heuman341111391J. Krupnik4313811113
WSep 24 · 07:15I. Heuman47117117113J. Krupnik3681141122
LSep 1 · 09:25I. Heuman377111181J. Krupnik4011513113
LSep 1 · 05:45I. Heuman56129813142J. Krupnik5910111111163
WAug 29 · 21:10I. Heuman47111114113J. Krupnik381371261
LAug 29 · 19:45I. Heuman37912791J. Krupnik43111011113
WAug 21 · 20:10I. Heuman4011117113J. Krupnik33961171
LAug 10 · 21:20I. Heuman29781131J. Krupnik3711114113
LAug 10 · 19:15I. Heuman371151291J. Krupnik4481114113
LAug 8 · 18:45I. Heuman27721171J. Krupnik4111118113
I. Heuman10
WOct 10 · 21:08J. Krupnik1.67116551I. Heuman2.1051111113WOct 10 · 20:10D. Velky Jr1.50531161I. Heuman2.5011115113WOct 10 · 17:40J. Skalicky1.83117381I. Heuman1.8331111113LOct 9 · 20:40I. Heuman1.57119521A. Kanak2.2561111113LOct 9 · 20:10I. Heuman1.674101181D. Vitasek2.1011125113WOct 9 · 18:40K. Kleprlik1.83811101142I. Heuman1.83119127113WOct 9 · 18:10A. Kanak2.20771191I. Heuman1.6111118113WOct 8 · 20:40P. Marsalek1.9197110I. Heuman1.801111133LOct 8 · 20:10I. Heuman1.4474140P. Marsalek2.631111163LOct 8 · 18:40M. Zaskodny1.501111113I. Heuman2.505260
J. Krupnik10
LOct 10 · 21:08J. Krupnik1.67116551I. Heuman2.1051111113WOct 10 · 19:40J. Skalicky1.53891181J. Krupnik2.3811115113WOct 10 · 18:10J. Krupnik1.731261111113D. Velky Jr2.00101131342LOct 10 · 16:40D. Velky Jr1.6211116113J. Krupnik2.15581191LOct 10 · 15:40J. Krupnik3.251179101K. Kleprlik1.3331111123LOct 10 · 14:40J. Krupnik2.38114111192M. Macurak1.53611137113LOct 10 · 13:40J. Krupnik1.73991191D. Velky Jr2.0011117113WOct 9 · 16:44F. Chaloupka1.6791161172J. Krupnik2.10116118113LOct 9 · 16:15J. Krupnik2.2591080M. Macurak1.571112113LOct 9 · 14:45B. Moravec1.441111113J. Krupnik2.632640
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