TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ivan Heuman vs Patrik Marsalek 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7114111416––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeIvan Heuman to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Heuman above · Patrik Marsalek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 14-16
Point 63 set 3, 14-16 · our read held Ivan Heuman at 65.7%
63 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Heuman 4–3 Patrik Marsalek Patrik Marsalek has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:0965.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Heuman
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heuman 1618 vs Marsalek 1503
Heuman
Wrong
both rated, 115 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heuman 80% vs Marsalek 20%
Heuman
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heuman 80% vs Marsalek 20%
Heuman
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Heuman -1 · Marsalek -4
Marsalek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Heuman) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marsalek form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeuman 1.444 / Marsalek 2.625
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Heuman)-3.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13263881
Heuman1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 57 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it68% 41 of 60
Marsalek2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog46% won 19 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back30% 7 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeHeuman4wins
AwayMarsalek3wins
1 of 7 to a deciderHeuman leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeuman66.7%2 of 3
AwayMarsalek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heuman3Marsalek4n = 7Marsalek took 4 of 7
S2Heuman6Marsalek1n = 7Heuman took 6 of 7
S3Heuman4Marsalek3n = 7Heuman took 4 of 7
S4Heuman3Marsalek3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricHeumanMarsalekH − MBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match35.934.4+1.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeumanMarsalekBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 459 vs 59 / 12849.9%46.1%229 / 459 vs 59 / 128Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HeumanHeuman 1.44/Marsalek 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Heuman · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marsalek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WOct 1 · 18:15I. Heuman4111117123P. Marsalek293511101
LSep 12 · 20:10I. Heuman28511751P. Marsalek3911611113
WSep 10 · 20:48I. Heuman341211113P. Marsalek2310760
LSep 10 · 19:15I. Heuman34611891P. Marsalek4011711113
WAug 28 · 20:50I. Heuman4291111113P. Marsalek31117851
LAug 28 · 20:15I. Heuman3311211722P. Marsalek42411511113
WAug 10 · 20:15I. Heuman3961111113P. Marsalek37119981
I. Heuman10
WOct 8 · 20:40P. Marsalek1.9197110I. Heuman1.801111133LOct 8 · 18:40M. Zaskodny1.501111113I. Heuman2.505260WOct 8 · 18:10D. Stusek1.5711791172I. Heuman2.25811117113WOct 4 · 21:10I. Heuman1.4611116113R. Solle2.55711161WOct 4 · 19:40I. Heuman1.738111011113A. Cizek2.0011812992WOct 4 · 18:40I. Heuman1.5711117113R. Solle2.25691151WOct 4 · 17:40I. Heuman1.6121111123D. Branny2.201194101WOct 3 · 21:14K. Kleprlik2.106111111102I. Heuman1.67111379123LOct 3 · 19:45I. Heuman1.67138116102K. Kleprlik2.101111811123WOct 3 · 18:45I. Heuman1.83111199113T. Kindl1.8388111132
P. Marsalek10
LOct 8 · 20:40P. Marsalek1.9197110I. Heuman1.801111133LOct 8 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.638480D. Stusek1.441111113LOct 8 · 17:40M. Zaskodny1.281111113P. Marsalek3.505640LOct 3 · 08:55P. Marsalek2.501111491F. Chaloupka1.5013811113LOct 3 · 08:15D. Velky Jr1.671212511113P. Marsalek2.10101411682WOct 3 · 07:15P. Marsalek3.40811514113F. Chaloupka1.30115111262LOct 3 · 05:45B. Moravec1.44111111113P. Marsalek2.63913421WOct 1 · 20:40J. Travnicek1.50310100P. Marsalek2.501112123LOct 1 · 20:15P. Marsalek1.618490D. Vitasek2.201111113LOct 1 · 18:45J. Travnicek1.6112511113P. Marsalek2.201011881
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