TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ivan Heuman vs Tomas Kindl 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118118911911113
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:44 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Heuman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Heuman above · Tomas Kindl below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 92 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Ivan Heuman at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Heuman 6–6 Tomas Kindl Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:4454.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kindl
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heuman 1578 vs Kindl 1550
Heuman
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heuman 80% vs Kindl 60%
Heuman
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heuman 60% vs Kindl 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heuman +1 · Kindl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Heuman) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heuman form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeuman 1.833 / Kindl 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Heuman)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13237476
Heuman1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Kindl1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeuman5wins
AwayKindl5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeuman75%3 of 4
AwayKindl66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heuman4Kindl6n = 10Kindl took 6 of 10
S2Heuman3Kindl7n = 10Kindl took 7 of 10
S3Heuman7Kindl3n = 10Heuman took 7 of 10
S4Heuman5Kindl5n = 10split evenly
S5Heuman3Kindl2n = 5Heuman took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeumanKindlH − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match45.644.2+1.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeumanKindlBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 450 vs 226 / 45549.3%49.7%222 / 450 vs 226 / 455Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.641.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HeumanHeuman 1.83/Kindl 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Heuman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Heuman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 14 · 19:15I. Heuman48811117113T. Kindl4311761182
WAug 11 · 20:45I. Heuman4211911113T. Kindl32911391
LAug 11 · 20:10I. Heuman389101181T. Kindl4011126113
WMay 19 · 17:45I. Heuman4491311113T. Kindl321111371
LMay 15 · 08:45I. Heuman48114141182T. Kindl547111213113
LMay 15 · 06:15I. Heuman376151151T. Kindl4411175113
WMay 11 · 20:40I. Heuman591114811153T. Kindl56816118132
WMay 11 · 19:40I. Heuman52117911143T. Kindl50711119122
LApr 18 · 17:45I. Heuman521181111112T. Kindl50131167133
LApr 16 · 08:45I. Heuman361011691T. Kindl4112711113
I. Heuman10
WOct 3 · 17:45I. Heuman1.731111123D. Vitasek2.0066100LOct 1 · 21:10I. Heuman1.578960D. Vitasek2.251111113WOct 1 · 19:45J. Travnicek1.67851191I. Heuman2.1011117113WOct 1 · 19:15D. Vitasek1.9111212512I. Heuman1.802111011113WOct 1 · 18:15I. Heuman1.7311117123P. Marsalek2.003511101LSep 30 · 08:44I. Heuman2.00641181T. Krenek1.7311119113LSep 30 · 07:45D. Velky Jr1.671211113I. Heuman2.1010970WSep 30 · 07:15L. Kantor1.8311127632I. Heuman1.838101111113WSep 30 · 06:15I. Heuman1.83512119113T. Krenek1.83111081192LSep 29 · 09:18R. Benes1.6711611113I. Heuman2.10211891
T. Kindl10
WOct 3 · 18:15K. Kleprlik1.401112111172T. Kindl2.75131494113LOct 1 · 12:34T. Kindl1.531141061L. Dzida2.3871112113WOct 1 · 12:10L. Dzida1.834890T. Kindl1.831111113LOct 1 · 11:10T. Kindl2.109940B. Mrowetz1.671111113WOct 1 · 09:40D. Velky Jr1.67911190T. Kindl2.101113213WSep 30 · 12:38T. Kindl1.9161112113L. Dzida1.801181061WSep 30 · 12:10T. Kindl2.001112133L. Dzida1.73610110LSep 30 · 10:40M. Moravec1.80119116113T. Kindl1.9191171192LSep 30 · 10:10R. Benes1.83121210113T. Kindl1.8310101291LSep 30 · 08:38T. Kindl1.737111111182D. Pawlik2.00118138203
Upcoming Matches
I. Heuman
Nothing scheduled
T. Kindl
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