TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ivan Heuman vs Daniel Branny 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
2111191141210––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:39 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeIvan Heuman to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Heuman above · Daniel Branny below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 70 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Ivan Heuman at 57.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Heuman 1–0 Daniel Branny Daniel Branny has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:3957.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Heuman
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Heuman 1590 vs Branny 1537
Heuman
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heuman 60% vs Branny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heuman 60% vs Branny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heuman +1 · Branny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Heuman) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Branny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeuman 1.615 / Branny 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Heuman)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13242869
Heuman1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite47% won 53 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it67% 39 of 58
Branny2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 24 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back20% 7 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHeuman1wins
AwayBranny0wins
Heuman leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHeumanBrannyH − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match36.029.0+7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeumanBrannyBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 453 vs 190 / 36349.5%52.3%224 / 453 vs 190 / 363Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HeumanHeuman 1.61/Branny 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Heuman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Heuman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJul 12 · 19:15I. Heuman3631111113D. Branny29116481
I. Heuman10
WOct 3 · 21:14K. Kleprlik2.106111111102I. Heuman1.67111379123LOct 3 · 19:45I. Heuman1.67138116102K. Kleprlik2.101111811123WOct 3 · 18:45I. Heuman1.83111199113T. Kindl1.8388111132WOct 3 · 17:45I. Heuman1.731111123D. Vitasek2.0066100LOct 1 · 21:10I. Heuman1.578960D. Vitasek2.251111113WOct 1 · 19:45J. Travnicek1.67851191I. Heuman2.1011117113WOct 1 · 19:15D. Vitasek1.9111212512I. Heuman1.802111011113WOct 1 · 18:15I. Heuman1.7311117123P. Marsalek2.003511101LSep 30 · 08:44I. Heuman2.00641181T. Krenek1.7311119113LSep 30 · 07:45D. Velky Jr1.671211113I. Heuman2.1010970
D. Branny10
LSep 30 · 21:15J. Przybyla1.8311111110113D. Branny1.8379131292WSep 30 · 19:40L. Lasota2.001016731D. Branny1.73121411113LSep 30 · 19:10J. Przybyla2.00411711123D. Branny1.73116111102WSep 30 · 18:10D. Branny1.7381111113D. Osvald2.00113991WSep 29 · 20:43D. Branny1.6713911113L. Lasota2.101111861WSep 29 · 19:45L. Lasota1.83451181D. Branny1.8311117113WSep 29 · 19:15V. Reska2.101011114122D. Branny1.67129711143LSep 29 · 18:15D. Branny1.6111711101F. Theodor2.2041113123LSep 27 · 21:10D. Branny2.109101861T. Molin1.67111216113WSep 27 · 19:45D. Branny2.38881212113T. Molin1.531111101072
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